Vengeance of the dead, what the hell

[thejeff]

Yeah, removing the limit would be a bad idea. (And in general require weird exceptions in the code, which is usually a bad idea.)

Better to change it so that the undead will auto rout when they hit their turn limit.

[Wyatt Hebert]

You say the numbers lie. Very well, they may. However, do you even understand the information assumed by the numbers? For example, what is the probability that it will take as few as 3 castings (Given it has a 4% chance each time)? Exactly 3 castings is .96*.96*.04. Exactly 2 castings would be .96*.04, and Exactly 1 casting is .04, by definition. This leads to a probability of 11.52%.

Now, _assuming that 3 castings will penetrate 50% of the time_, the actual probability of failure is x^3=0.5, or ~79%. This gives the chance of success at 21%. If this is accurately the chance of success, then the game code does have issues.

I guess the other consideration is the path combination required to cast VotD. I _think_ that only MA Ermor has the requisite paths innately (i.e. giving the cost information is correct), though I could easily be mistaken on that score. The other check is that, possibly, it's overpowered in Ermor's case. Granted, from what is apparently a subtext of this message, Ermor has the capability to not only use double blessed Shadow Vestals AND VotD. Now, is THIS overpowered, and, if so, what could be done to fix the combo without changing VotD.

Oh, and please note that I _estimated_ nothing. I simply applied binomial statistics. _Given_ a 4% success rate, there is a probability slightly higher than 50% that the first 16 trials will fail. Stated slightly differently, what is the probability of rolling <49 on a d50 16 times in a row? ~50%. If the success rate is wrong, of course the result will be wrong. That's why I did the secondary calculation assuming your case was an average one. I doubt your case was average, however. I think the Ermorian player got lucky with a roll at some point. ~21% chance of success is to hit someone with, I believe, only 2-3 points higher than you. That would, I believe, imply something on the order of +12 Penetration, which is nigh impossible that early in a game.

Let's figure out how the numbers fall out, and then we'll start worrying. If astral spells have a bonus to penetration overland, that needs to be verified and fixed, unless that is working as intended. Honestly, VotD might require one higher in one of its two paths, and that probably would help. On the other hand, I think some of the stuff in the next patch is Shadow Vestal being reduced, so that might help this kind of situation, too.

Let's look at the issue holistically, rather than the specific cause of death. Can we agree on that?

Wyatt Hebert

P.S. I am planning, time-allowing, to run a test scenario with VotD. Ermor vs. Ulm, and I will be paying close attention to Penetration vs. MR score each time. Combat occurs before dominion change, and spells happen before Combat, so the numbers I read on the turn should be the numbers used in the calculation, correct?

[thejeff]

Let's look at the issue holistically, rather than the specific cause of death. Can we agree on that?

No, we can't. That's the point I was trying to make earlier.

By holistically, you seem to mean from a balance point of view, not a thematic one. But I'm not arguing a balance issue.

I'm not arguing that the spell is overpowered. I'm arguing that auto kills because the undead don't rout or die when the attacking side is supposed to are a problem.
If that gets fixed, then VotD may need a cost or path decrease , or a boost in power to compensate. Or not if the auto kill was unintended.
The spell would remain useful taking out evocation type battle mages, regardless.

[llamabeast]

Exactly 3 castings is .96*.96*.04

You mean 3*.96*.96*.04

Sorry, couldn't help it

[sum1lost]

Perhaps if non-mindless units didn't count towards kill numbers...?

[Lazy_Perfectionist]

Did you mean 'if mindless units' rather than non-mindless?

I'd imagine it hard to get into the hall of fame.

[sum1lost]

Lazy_Perfectionist said:
Did you mean 'if mindless units' rather than non-mindless?

I'd imagine it hard to get into the hall of fame.

Yes. That.

if mindless didn't count towards kills. Or at least if mindless troops weren't counted under the Votd thing.

[DenStoreFrelser]

sum1won said:
if mindless didn't count towards kills. Or at least if mindless troops weren't counted under the Votd thing.

If surviving a VotD means you get twice the number of happinesses the next time around, I doubt there's a second stat for mindless kills, or a stat for "unavenged" (the VotD thing) kills. Depending on what the code is like, adding a new stat for all units could be a pain, especially for such a small thing as a single spell making copies of ghosts, but it's the only solution I can see that wouldn't change anything else in the game.

[Tuidjy]

Why not just make it so that if you survive 75 turns, you live? Nothing else
gets changed, and the exploit stops working.

[OmikronWarrior]

llamabeast said:

You mean 3*.96*.96*.04

Sorry, couldn't help it

No, he was right. If the order doesn't matter, then yeah you'd times the odds by three. However, he's assuming EXACTLY 3 castings, which means only the last casting can be a success. Ergo, order is important, and the only order possible is Failure, Failure, Success. If you want to know the odds of succeeding in three or less trials, you need to independently figure out the odds of succeeding an exactly 1 and 2 trials and add them together (with 3 trials, of course).

On another note, maybe its possible to meet both positions halfway. A, it stinks to die due to a game mechanism clearly designed for other situations. B, it can be thematic and the spell works fine as it is.

My idea would be to simply start "mindless dissolution" on turn 50. This is the rule that mindless beings left with out a commander have a 33% chance of spontaneously dieing every turn. In addition they won't move and will only attack units already adjacent to them. This means any individual soulless unit will only have a ~.5% chance of going all 25 turns with out dissolving. Clearly in large numbers some will remain. That's not the point. Now, the target actually has a chance to finish off the chaff. If they still can't do that by 75 turns... let 'em die.