Ukraine 2021(?)

[MarkSheppard]

I think a scenario like this shows WHY the Russians went with the BMP-3's armament.

It seems all so crazy -- 100mm low pressure gun AND a 30mm autocannon for an IFV.

But then you realize a T-90 only really has about 22 rounds ready; and if you're assaulting a dug in infantry position like in this scenario; those 22 rounds of 125mm run out fast, especially if you're reserving ammunition for anti-tank work.

By contrast, the BMP-3 has about 40 rounds of 100mm and 500 rounds of 30mm; meaning that the BMP-3 can "escort" the T-90, with the T-90s going ahead to take the hits the BMP-3 can't, while the BMP-3 peppers the enemy positions with 100mm HE-FRAG (it doesn't have to be super accurate, just enough to keep their heads down and inflict some casualties).

Oh, and you also need to fire at the enemy, even if you only have a 5% or 7% chance of a hit in-game.

[shahadi]

I've recently recalled the conflict in Georgia in 2008. I now believe that Gerogia initiated the hostilities thinking NATO would back her militarily; due in large part to the Bucharest Declaration issued by NATO in 2008.

Here is part 23 of that declaration:

"We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO."

However, Ukraine has not made the Georgian mistake, although NATO is committed to add Ukraine to NATO.

Ukraine's geography is most important as well as the flow of natural gas through Ukraine. I think Russia intends to bleed Ukraine's economy; while pressuring the Ukrainian elites to accept what amounts to an oligarchical goverance along the lines in Russia; where industries, products, and services are allocated among the elites. I do not think Russia wants to invade Ukraine.

The US headed by Cruz and many other senators are threatening to replace the Nordstream II pipeline with US shipped natural gas. The US may have recheted up the tensions between Ukraine and Russia since 2014. In other words why now?

Could the case be that Putin is reacting to US threats to slash Nordstream II?

Ukraine has deployed the bulk of her fighting force, nearly 120,000 troops to Eastern Ukraine; and it should be noted that with the close
proximity of large formations a spark causing hostilities could smolder on winds from the East or West of Luhansk and Donetsk.

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard

This is a simple assault scenario. I haven't playtested it that throroughly; so don't invest too much of your time to it. If you're having difficulties; just quit and let me know if it's too hard or whatnot.

Interestingly, Russia crushed Georgia in March of 2008. Today, is the 11th of February.

I know this scenario is a what/if, and we know MarkSheppard has given us thoughtful scenarios; please allow me to say, I can't see Russian Naval Infantry (marines) taking on Ukrainian army units; Marines are light forces with "beer and ammo" for maybe 72 hours max.

I'd buy the marines pushing aside border guards and other militia volunteers to permit an unhampered and rapid Russian heavy units follow through; with the marines protecting the flanks and rear of a regular army advance.

Thanks for sharing; and, thanks for patience.

[Aeraaa]

It was August 2008* when the Ossetian war happened.


*(officially on the 8th, which was also when the Bejing Olympics of 2008 started, although hostilities started since August 1)

[DRG]

Personally, I do not think there will be an invasion. This IMHO is the west looking for a way to distract people from the Pandemic and Putin is happy to stir the pot. This "build-up" is all about Ukraine possibly joining NATO which is about as popular in Russia as it would have been in the US 50 years ago if Mexico talked about joining Warsaw pact. Even the Ukrainian President says all this speculation is not helping.

To put that into perspective, if Ukraine joined NATO that would put the eastern border of a NATO nation less than 250 km from what was Stalingrad.

Think about that.

EDIT......... WELL, I GUESS I WAS WRONG ABOUT THE INVASION.......

[zovs66]

I agree with DRG, this is just another smoke and mirrors game run by a clown who stole an election (not the real laughing stock hiding in the office). While I can a test to the reality of Covid, its not a natural flu like sickness at all, its a man made bio-weapon created by the Chinese from the pocket books of the likes of Gates and his frontman Fauci. If you think otherwise, go ask some folks in Australia or Canada how much their governments really care about their people. Those two countries alone have the closest thing to the Nazi jackboots on the ground in their Polizei force.

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by shahadi

I know this scenario is a what/if, and we know MarkSheppard has given us thoughtful scenarios; please allow me to say, I can't see Russian Naval Infantry (marines) taking on Ukrainian army units; Marines are light forces with "beer and ammo" for maybe 72 hours max.

Russian Naval Infantry isn't your normal naval infantry.

I created this scenario based off a twitter thread that identified vehicles of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on trains:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481968626701934592

T-80BV
MT-LB
BMP-3

Some further work identified the main OOB of the 155th NIB as being:

155th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade
---59th Separate Naval Infantry Battalion
---84th Naval Infantry Separate tank battalion -- 4 companies of tanks plus 1 or 2 tanks for BN HQ.
---263rd Separate Artillery Battery (6 x 2S9 Nona?)
---1484th Separate Communications Battalion

A Naval Infantry Battalion is:

HHC Supply/Medical/Maint/Comms units
3 x Naval Infantry Companies
1 x Mortar Platoon
1 x AT Platoon

I didn't have precise numbers on how the 155th's 59th NIB was equipped, so I gave them 1 x BMP-3 Co and 2 x MT-LB Co; because even in 2022; Russia has only 700 x BMP-3 in service; and a single BMP-3 company has 13 of them; ergo, Russia can only deploy about 50 companies of BMP-3s.

EDIT: Looking at Wiki, my guess was right:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Naval_Infantry

The Russian Naval Infantry have been gradually phasing out PT-76 amphibious tanks, and started to receive a number of T-80s and upgraded BMP-2Ms.[26][27] A full-strength Naval Infantry Brigade may have up to 70-80 Tanks. The Russian Naval Infantry has 50 T-72B, 150 T-72B3, 30 T-72B3 mod. 2016, 50 T-80BV and 50 T-80BVM as of 2021. The APCs used by the Naval Infantry are either wheeled BTR-80s (in Assault Landing Battalions) or tracked MT-LBs (in Marine Battalions). Naval Infantry units are receiving BMP-3 IFVs and about 40 have been delivered in 2021.[28] BMP-3s may equip one company per Marine battalion.

[Mr_Bill_5000]

Actually there IS a scenario (I wrote it).

Reference :

https://forum.shrapnelgames.com/show...&postcount=120

It's called "Battle in East Ukraine" and is winnable by either side (although clearly the Ukrainians have a harder time of it).

Let me know what you think,

Mr. Bill

[shahadi]

It is has been reported Russian assault ships are on station in the Black Sea; however, I did not observe a flight deck on the Kaliningrad amphibious assault ship. That leads me to believe the naval infantry does not have organic air assault capability as contrasted with an American USMC MEU. And, it reveals that naval infantry units conducts assualts amphibiously; without rotary or fixed-wing aircraft to transport, provide air strike or logistical support.

Therefore, I would find interesting to know the real capabilities of the naval infantry given she does not have dedicated air assets for transport, air support, and logistics. Furthermore, Russia has only I aircraft carrier, meaning time on station per air sortie maybe drastically reduced from air operations conducted from an amphibious assault ship; certainly, rotary operations maybe restricted outright.

If my assessments are accurate, Russian air support would have to be based at the airfield in Crimea; too far for rotary support, and at a distance to severely restrict ordinance loads of strike aircraft. In my thinking the port of Odessa is the big prize to squeeze Ukraine economically while restricting her military logistical support.

I say the siezing of the port of Odessa is within the core doctrine of naval infantry (or should be). The Russians must rely on coordinating support for naval infantry from the air force and possibly the army if my assessments are accurate.

But, as I have said in an earlier post, I do not subscribe to a Russian invasion. IMHO, The political solution has the Minks Agreements of 2014 as a foundation.

Now that I've mentioned the USMC, where's Suhiir?

[DRG]

Originally Posted by shahadi

Now that I've mentioned the USMC, where's Suhiir?

She last posted 26th May 2021. She does has not replied to emails I have sent though they are not bounced

Given everything that has gone on since 26th May 2021 and that she had pre-existing health issues it doesn't look good