An introduction to Arga Dis, Blood and Bronze - Page 4

Amhazair · #31 June 27th, 2008, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Amhazair said:About 1/8 of your augurs will have S3.

Is there anyone who can check my math for me here? In my MP game I recruited ~30 Augurs, without getting a single S3 one. That is of course within the realm of possibilities, but not very probable. (~2% actually, if my 1/8 chance is correct)

Augurs are 55%S 55%FS 55%FS (55%DN 55%DN) 55%FSDN 55%FSDN. My statistics classes in high school are way too long ago for me to stand any chance of remembering the formula I need for this. I arrived at 1/8 by just counting up the different ways to achieve S3, but it's quite possible I made counting errors there. Anyone who can verify that my math was correct will earn my eternal gratitude.

HB, I'll take a look at your mod sometime when I have time/feel like it, and give you some impressions. Writing a complete guide (for anyone, not talking about me specifically) would imo require some comptetitive MP though. (quite apart from being inspired by the nation to put the time and effort into it, which is obviously not a given either) For Arga Dis I posted my impressions in the mod threads aaaages ago - quite extensive, since I really liked the nation, but nothing even approaching a guide like this one. The guide only arrived after Arga Dis was considered a balanced nation, was accepted in MP games, and I got the opportunity to start a MP game with them, almost a year later.

llamabeast · #32 June 27th, 2008, 01:37 PM

Well my maths failed me, but being a man of patience I ran one million tests*.

The probability of getting at least S3 is 11.5% it seems (almost one eighth). The probability of getting at least S4 is about 1.55%.

* - I don't have that much patience, I wrote a little program.

Amhazair · #33 June 27th, 2008, 01:55 PM

All right, wonderful. I was in the correct ballpark then, and was just unlucky in my game.

As promised, you now have my eternal gratitude. Feel free to take advantage of it.

MaxWilson · #34 June 27th, 2008, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Amhazair said:

Quote:

Amhazair said:About 1/8 of your augurs will have S3.

Is there anyone who can check my math for me here? In my MP game I recruited ~30 Augurs, without getting a single S3 one. That is of course within the realm of possibilities, but not very probable. (~2% actually, if my 1/8 chance is correct)

If you assume that all probabilities are independent... which is untrue pretty much by definition with a pseudorandom number generator. See the thread on revelers from last week.

-Max

thejeff · #35 June 27th, 2008, 03:10 PM

A good pseudorandom generator produces outputs that are for all intents and purposes independent. They are deterministic, but the type of output we're getting here will have no predictive value, making it as independent as it has any need to be.

This is not to guarantee that dominions uses a good pseudorandom generator. I've got no reason to believe it doesn't and patterns of these types of results don't convince me.

Especially when you consider that there are likely dozens to hundreds of random values used between one Auger's picks and the next. If there is some pattern in what picks your mages get, it's built into other parts of the code not in the RNG.

I'd bet on observer bias. The human brain is very good at detecting patterns. Even when they are not present.

MaxWilson · #36 June 27th, 2008, 03:30 PM

I'm thinking that the only way to find out is to turn on -dddd and examine the random outputs.

-Max

HoneyBadger · #37 June 28th, 2008, 02:32 PM

Don't be in any particular rush, Amhazair, F'Thaggua is a mess, and I'm not in a position to clean it up at the moment. But thanks for the offer

Sombre · #38 March 9th, 2009, 12:48 PM

I was just browsing around and I rediscovered this frankly awesome guide. So I'm bumping it. I hope one day to see more guides to mod nations (particularly my own ;] ) and this one is a shining example.

I'm going to make sure the latest version of Arga Dis is up to date and bug free this week (I suspect it is) and I'll be checking out this guide as I go along.

Amhazair · #39 March 11th, 2009, 02:45 PM

I've been wanting to clean up the first post since the move to the new forums. With the move lots of the signs got changed into little squares making it look a bit neglected. The post far exceeds the character limit on these forums though, so I couldn't save t after I combed through that entire text to filter out all the little issues.

I guess it'll remain in its current form for all eternity.

llamabeast · #40 March 11th, 2009, 03:33 PM

Ooh, I wonder if anyone might want to do a Tomb Kings guide?? *puppy dog eyes*