I kinda agree with Keir here, its a bit early yet to write off the Illwinter change as ineffective in fixing the percieved (though I percieve it) imbalance in order/misfortune.
I don't think the proper solution can be had by just tweeking the existing numbers anyway, I think that the effect of luck on the actual events should be changed. Such that there is no longer a bias toward good or bad events, but with luck good events are better and bad events are not as bad. With misfortune the opposite. Others have suggested this before as well. Assigning a straight % or having a set of 7 levels for each event depending on your luck level. The latter makes luck a bit less quantifiable, which I think it should be anyway
edit- Spelled Kier wrong
[ January 14, 2004, 21:25: Message edited by: licker ]