Re: Random Magic Paths - is it truly random?
Based on his knowledge of statistics he made an estimate, thats what the ~ is for.
The exact value is given by
((7/8)^20 * 8c7) + ((6/8)^20 * 8c6) + ((5/8^20 * 8c5) + . . . + ((1/8^20 * 8c1) = .647163
If he didn't figure it out exactly he's a pretty good guesser.
And he did say it properly:
Probability of not getting 1 or more paths after recruiting 20 random paths.
*8c5 = 8 combinataion 5 (ways to get 5 out of 8 with replacement) = 8!/5!3!
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