[Evilhomer]

I do belive you are incorrect VedalkenBear. It was a while since i studied statistic (I will give you that) but probabilites change if we get to know something about the result (like knowing that we have 1 earth site). The binomical chances you listed:

0 - 0.1296
1 - 0.3456
2 - 0.3456
3 - 0.1536
4 - 0.0256

are probably correct if you have no prior knowledge (I have not dubble checked this but I will trust them). They will however change once it is known that we have 1 site (from the earth check - obviously now the chance of having 0 sites is 0). This will change the result on the following calculation....