Site Searching Statistics Questions

[Evilhomer]

I do belive you are incorrect VedalkenBear. It was a while since i studied statistic (I will give you that) but probabilites change if we get to know something about the result (like knowing that we have 1 earth site). The binomical chances you listed:

0 - 0.1296
1 - 0.3456
2 - 0.3456
3 - 0.1536
4 - 0.0256

are probably correct if you have no prior knowledge (I have not dubble checked this but I will trust them). They will however change once it is known that we have 1 site (from the earth check - obviously now the chance of having 0 sites is 0). This will change the result on the following calculation....

[VedalkenBear]

Evilhomer: Actually it doesn't. The other calculation used the probability of 2 sites (0.3456) multiplied by the chance that the second site (since the first is already occupied) is the appropriate kind.

The binomial numbers above came right out of Excel's BINOMDIST function. Also, I know they're correct because I've had to use that exact P for Work Measurement several times.

Remember, the number of sites are mutually exclusive. Having 2 sites is not dependent on having 1. Obviously, you can't have 2 without having 1, but in a probabilistic sense, the states are mutually exclusive and independent.

[Evilhomer]

I am not sure we understand each other here I must say. I will give you an example:

The same hypergeometric distribution GIVEN that we have 4 sites in that province would be:

0 - 0.0
1 - 0.0
2 - 0.0
3 - 0.0
4 - 1.0

In the same way the distribution you gave would change GIVEN that we have atleast 1 site, so using this:

0 - 0.1296
1 - 0.3456
2 - 0.3456
3 - 0.1536
4 - 0.0256

just cannot be accurate for the second calculation (when we know we have atleast 1 site). Maybe I misunderstood you somewhere along the way, a bit to tired to go into detailed math analysis.