Quote:
Originally Posted by chrispedersen
Quote:
Originally Posted by Squirrelloid
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrispedersen
1. Determine number of events.
2. Randomly choose province for event
3. Determine what events can happen (scales etc).
4. Check each possible event see if it happens.
5. Still have events remaining.. go to 2.
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1 is almost certainly wrong based on the data I have. If it predetermined the number of events, you'd be unlikely to see a binomial distribution (which you do see). (I mean, I suppose it could calculate the number of events based on a binomial distribution, but that doesn't seem like the kind of thing JK would have bothered to do. In fact, the only reason to do that is to fool people trying to figure out how events are generated. |
how is rolling four times (step one) not binomial? |
But why would you check that way if you're determining number of events all at once? It only makes sense to determine them independently if you're checking for the event after some other step 1. (Especially given what we know of JK's programming style)
In addition to the problem LDICaesare points out, your method also predicts that empire size has no effect on the number of events seen. I'm pretty sure this is wrong, but I haven't recorded data to test it specifically.