Ethiopia Invades Somalia - Campaign Scenarios

[MarkSheppard]

Linka

21 July 2006

Ethiopian troops enter Somalia

By Mohamed Oled Hassan
ETHIOPIAN troops in armoured vehicles rolled into the central Somali town of Baidoa yesterday and set up a camp near the home of the interim president, less than a day after Islamic militants reached the outskirts of the base of a UN-backed but largely powerless government.

A spokesman for the Ethiopian government had said that his country would protect Somalia’s transitional government from attack by Islamic militias who control much of southern Somalia.

Numerous witnesses said Ethiopian soldiers arrived yesterday in Baidoa, 240 kilometres north-west of Mogadishu and about 160km east of the Ethiopian border.

Linka 2

Jihad threat after troops enter Somalia
By Steve Bloomfield, Africa Correspondent
Published: 21 July 2006

Islamists controlling the Somali capital, Mogadishu, vowed to "wage a jihadi war" after Ethiopian troops crossed the border into the country last night. International observers have warned that Somalia is on the brink of a conflict that could be as bloody as the civil war 15 years ago in which 300,000 died.

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Goes into scenario slot 210.

Ethiopia vs Somalia I

Date: July 21, 2006

Battle Location: Baidoa, Somalia; The capital of the UN-Recognized Somali Government

Battle Type: Ethiopia vs. Somalian Meeting Engagement

Historicality: Hypothetical-Historical; based on news reports of Ethiopian troops attacking.

Design by: Ryan Crierie

Scenario description: Being threatened by the recent takeover of most of Somalia by the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), Ethiopia decided to intervene. By July 21, Ethiopian troops had reached Baidoa, Somalia, where the UN-Recognized Somali Government resides. ICU Jihadist fighters also approached Baidoa, and with the declaration of Jihad against the Ethiopians by a Somali Sheikh, hostilities were imminient.

This will be an 'interesting' scenario, for the simple reason that both sides are very ill trained in the use of their weapons, and morale is generally very low, except for a few highly fanatical Islamic Jihadists.

Sources: The News Media

[MarkSheppard]

Hm, Apparently the ethopian vs ICU fight has really kicked off as of lately.

[MarkSheppard]

From another forum by a friend of mine:

The Ethiopians are in the process of utterly crushing the Islamic Courts Union through a series of very sophisticated manoeuvre operations, which suggest that they have fully digested the lessons of their successes at the end of the Eritrean Border War, and are now capable of operating in at least a semi-modern fashion, albeit on better terrain against a less sophisticated opponent.

In summary, the Ethiopians have counterattacked across the border at Feerfeer with what is probably their main force, which depending on the accuracy of reports includes a full armoured division. This force has taken Beledweyne as of 25 December and continues driving south. At the same time a combined Ethiopian-Puntland force counterattacked from Galkayo (Galcaio), liberating the towns of Bandiradley and Adado that I marked on the map with blue. These two drives threaten encirclement of thousands of ICU fighters in the north and the collapse of their whole position in the central part of the country, save along the coast.

The possibility of additional Ethiopian forces attacking from Oddur to take Buulobarde is high; but as the status of the ICU troops in Tiyloglow on the road from Oddur to Buulobarde is uncomfirmed, I can't definitely say that a flanking attack was conducted there; it seems necessary, however, for Buulobarde to be seized on the 25th as well as Beledwyne, which has been confirmed.

The result of this is a combined Ethiopian (again, possibly including a full armoured division) and warlord force advancing on Giohar (Jowhar in most reports). The ICU troops have totally abandoned trying to hold anywhere beyond the city of Jowhar itself; they have essentially, therefore, fallen back to within ninety kilometers of the capital, and the Ethiopian offensive is making so much ground so quickly that I imagine they must shortly halt for resupply.

Buurhakaba was definitely essentially surrounded by the Ethiopian counterattack launched to the south of Baidoa, which appears to have been fronted by a T-55 battalion. Until yesterday the ICU advance on Baidoa was making more progress.. But the Ethiopian counterattack has of the 26th, today, routed the ICU forces in Buurhakaba and taken the city (this is confirmed), with the ICU forces by the thousands streaming back toward Mogadishu in a general rout. This means that the main ICU forces which had been tasked with the frontal advance on Baidoa are now in extreme danger of being encircled and utterly annihilated.

To the south, the last of the counteroffensives has encircled and destroyed several ICU formations in Dinsoor and successfully retaken that town (For the second time in the fighting)--but this time with the ICU, instead of counterattacking in turn, now in general retreat to the southeast.

The only ICU force which seems to be in good order is that around Lidale, which is ironically commanded by Abu al-Sudan--the man who blew up our embassies in East Africa, gone from terrorist to brigade commander for the ICU and proof of the Islamists' real intentions.

In short, the Ethiopian Army has torn vast holes in the Islamists' formations and has the possibility of achieving two major encirclements, while already having routed and panicked into pell-mell retreat thousands or tens of thousands of Islamist fighters. The Ethiopian forces are exceptionally sizeable, probably at division strength by now around Baidoa and potentially at corps strength in the central area of the country (counting all columns in both cases)--this means they've likely committed all of the troops that they plan to. They have in essentially every single case destroyed the Islamist opposition with casual ease, and the rapidity of their advance is so extreme that the forces committed in the north must be fully mechanized/motorized.

Apparently the ICU is already contemplating abandoning conventional resistance and resorting to guerrilla warfare, though at this rate of collapse the only place they will be able to conduct such operations in is Mogadishu itself and its immediate environs. It appears however that efforts to fortify Jowhar may be continuing despite such rumours.

I'm not sure about the Ethiopians' air assets assigned to this operation.

It can be roughly said that they have two forces, one consisting of an infantry brigade and an infantry regiment operating separately from each other in the south, with a tank battalion (30 tanks or so, T-55s) in support of the brigade (possibly some tanks were detached to Dinsoor area). The regiment is operating in the Dinsoor area; the brigade is the force that took Buurhakaba. Note that their units are generally smaller than our's. The northern force has roughly three groups, a regiment operating out of Galcaio (Galkayo), and a division driving south from Buulobardo toward Jowhar (Giohar). If a force is operating out of Oddur it's probably brigade strength also.

The composition of the division is the interesting question. The Somalian civilians which have been advanced past by the Ethiopians say they have "hundreds of tanks", but the main Ethiopian APC is the BMP-1, which with its 73mm cannon and treaded body would look indistinguishable from a tank to a Somali villager. Therefore I'm inclined to say they're operating a Soviet-style mechanized division in that force, which could still mean up to 150 x T-54/55, but the bulk of force being BMPs and BTRs.

The Somalian ambassador in Addis Adaba is saying that he expects the Ethiopians to occupy Mogadishu in 48 hours. This is quite implausible, and was based on the idea that the Ethiopians are only 40 miles from Mogadishu, which is unlikely. Giohar, however, is only 55 miles from Mogadishu and definitely will be attacked in 48 hours unless the Ethiopians' supply lines force them to halt. The Ethiopians are also driving hard for Wanlewayne, and in the process tens of thousands of Islamic fighters in two or three large areas may be caught up in vast encircelements.

Prime Minister Meles himself has stated now what I had suspected was their plan all along, that the Ethiopian Army will not enter Mogadishu, but will instead encircle the city "to contain the ICU". What I suspect this actually means is that Mogadishu will be besieged, the ICU's control of all other areas destroyed, and the city itself subjected to very intense bombing and shelling until the population, starving and under constant fire, rises up to dispose of the ICU's leadership themselves and surrender rather than suffer thousands of more deaths.

I'll round up a brief summary of the casualties inflicted in operations to date:

Islamists:
1. Official Ethiopian sources say "in excess" of 1,000 bodies of Islamist soldiers have been counted by Ethiopian troops during their advance. This report is many hours of hard fighting out of date.
2. Meles himself stated that on his information on the order of 4,000 wounded Islamist fighters have been brought back to Mogadishu for treatment.
3. The Red Cross says that in medical facilities near the front lines they have received more than 800 ICU casualties (That report was from yesterday) for treatment.
4. More than 300 Islamists surrendered in Buurhakaba when the city was surrounded by Ethiopian troops--this group included numerous individuals of Arab and South Asian extraction with British passports.
5. The encirclement of Dinsoor entailed the surrender of several Islamist units; the leaders of these units were said to have all been killed. It is possible they were executed by the Ethiopians.
6. In Beledweyne a group of around 20 Muslim foreign fighters committed suicide rather than surrender.

Totals: Using the typical formulation for tribal fighting, I would estimate that for every body counted, another Islamist soldier has crawled off the field seriously wounded to die. This was the case around Rourke's Drift, for instance, where possibly the number of fatalities was twice the 450 initially reported among the Zulu because of this, the seriously wounded that expired without care.

Furthermore, this is only a tally of Ethiopian troops. Troops of the old Warlord of Jowhar, of the Confederation of Galmudug, of the Republic of Puntland, and of the Transitional Government are also involved in the fighting. The Ethiopian figures can only possibly come from the 23rd and later and the Ethiopians did not begin their counterattack until the 24th.

With that considered and with the fact that combat operations have continued, I would say that the total for all the allied forces so far may be on the order of 1,200 - 1,500 killed and an equal number mortally wounded, or around ~2,500 dead to date in the Islamist ranks.

Because of the lack of medical treatment, the ratio of dead to wounded will be at best 1:3, possibly as bad as 1:2. The fact that there are 4,800+ wounded Islamists receiving treatment supports this. On top of that I would say there is another ~1,000 walking wounded who can still potentially fight.

Finally on the order of 600 - 800 Islamists have surrendered to the Ethiopians and their allies. The Ethiopians may be executing the leaders to prevent a resurgence.

All of these casualties have been inflicted only in the period of time from the 23rd to the 26th, and very few on the 23rd if any; so in short they are the casualty totals of only around 72 hours of heavy fighting.

It is important to remember that there are extensive numbers of foreign fighters in the Islamist forces, and that Abu Taha al-Sudan is indeed in command of the brigade of the ICU's tribal lashkars around Lidale, which is ironically one of the most intact of the ICU's forces, in much less danger of being encircled: This killer of American and Israeli innocents has ironically proved himself a decent field commander, this only one who's force has not been virtually encircled or now outright destroyed.

The Islamists are, as noted, continuing to fortify the approaches to Mogadishu; their forces in the central-north Baidoa area can probably only hope to disperse and save their lives, though the desert will kill many of them with a lack of water, as the Ethiopians control most of the wells and they will be left out, I suspect, to die of thirst, the same for those encircled in the central part of the country (save the tribal lashkars which defect outright to the government, of which the number will be, granted, high).

The numbers bely the thousands of men who are in danger of encirclement, however, and the thousands more in units which have routed and simply collapsed, with their heavy weapons abandoned and all running to the rear to save their lives, which will be useless for quite some time to come. A great deal of the Islamist power has therefore already been crippled.

Allied casualties:

As for the casualties of the Ethiopians and their allies, the Islamists claim 700 killed. The number of Ethiopian soldiers in that figure, however, is only 60 - 80. That the intense fighting might have killed around 600 soldiers of the Puntland, Gumudug, and the Transitional government, and the Warlord of Jowhar's remaining retainers (I have no idea of the size of his forces accompanying the Ethiopian advance on Jowhar), is not implausible; yet I put a heavier grain of salt on the figures reported by the ICU, because they have been retreating in disorder the whole time and cannot count bodies as the Ethiopians have the luxury of doing; in any case I do not think that more than 2,000 casualties have been suffered by the allied forces, at least 85% of them by Somali tribal levies instead of the Ethiopian regulars.

[CFeicht]

Wow. That's the most detail on the Horn operations I've seen to date.

Do you have a link to that forum you mentioned in your post? I'd love to see those maps he's talking about.

C.

[MarkSheppard]

Will do.

By the way, a lot of what the Duchess wrote above is basically assumptions and a lot of reading between the lines, to try and construct a coherent narrative out of the limited information available to her.

Link to thread 1

The Islamic Court Unions, as typical for their expectations and overall goal (which is not the stability of Somalia, but conquest) fly the Black Flag of Jihad, black bearing the takbir in white.

In recognition of this, the following support has definitely been provided by other nations of the Islamic Ummah:

Djibouti: Military uniforms and medical supplies.

Egypt: Military training at Bal'ad north of Mogadiashu, in cooperation with the Eritreans and Libyans, to 3,800 troops of the ICU.

Iran: Sent three aircraft loads of machine-guns and M-79 grenade launchers, with ammunition, along with medical supplies and the service of three medical doctors. A large dhow also arrived at el-Adde on the 17th of August carrying 80 MANPADs with copious ammunition for them.

Hezbollah: The Islamic Courts Union sent 720 men to fight as a volunteer battalion with Hezbollah against Israel in the conflict over the summer. These men were reputedly combat veterans of al-Qaeda operations in Afghanistan against our troops there. In exchange, Hezbollah served as a broker for the ICU to obtain additional supplies from Syria and Iran.

Libya: Provided training, funds, and sent several military aircraft to Somalia (It is possible these were still there, and the target of Ethiopian airstrikes against the Somalian airports), along with at least one consignment of arms.

Eritrea: One shipment by a heavy trading dhow (~200 tons burthen) of AK-47 assault rifles, PKM machine-guns, RPG-7s and ammunition. A second shipment by dhow of anti-aircraft guns, and a third shipment, by an Antonov transport, also of anti-aircraft guns. Volunteers from the Muslim Oromo Liberation Front which operates in Ethiopia against the government, and from Pakistan, arrived in Somalia on another dhow from Eritrea to join the ICU forces (75). Beyond these shipments a total of 2,000 regular Eritrean troops were dispatched to Somalia to form a strong backing cadre for the Islamists' tribal levies.

Saudi Arabia: A C-130 loaded with medicine and foostuffs was sent from Saudi Arabia to Mogadishu in June. In August around 320 volunteer jihadis arrived from Saudi Arabia along with seven truckloads of food and ammunition, probably shipped by dhow from the Saudi Red Sea coast.

Syria: In July, 200 ICU fighters were shipped to Syria for training in guerrilla warfare tactics.

Foreign volunteers:

The number of foreign volunteers stretches the whole of the Islamic world. There are estimated, discounting those listed above which were apparently dispatched by government efforts, around 8,000 jihadis from foreign countries in Somalia with the support of the ICU. Many of these are veterans of heavy combat against our forces in Afghanistan, and may include some of the old Arab cadres of Osama bin Laden who survived the US invasion in 2001 but were forced to flee, and are veterans of combat against the Soviet Army in the 1980s.

The largest numbers, however, are not Arabs, but rather Pakistanis, usually having crossed the Indian Ocean on trading dhows, though a sizeable quantity of Pakistanis of British citizenship or naturalized status are included in these forces, and perhaps as many as twenty of these have been captured in action by the Ethiopian Army during its advance.

In total:

1. 8,795 jihadis, 795 dispatched by governments and 8,000 independently arrived.
2. 2,000 Eritrean regulars.
3. Up to 720 trained Islamists who have combat experience against Israel (this category may overlap to some extent with 1.)
4. 3,800 local levies trained by Eritrean, Libyan, and Egyptian officers in Somalia.
5. 200 locals trained in guerrilla war tactics in Syria.
6. A number of medical specialists to provide a combat medical service for the Islamist army.

In short, the Islamists went into the conflict with around 15,500 trained fighting troops, most of them veterans of heavy combat against modern armies (or the Ethiopians). The rest of their force was tribal lashkars. It appears at this moment that only these troops have provided any serious resistance to the impetous of the Ethiopian advance. The tribal lashkars have defected or collapsed and fled generally at first onset; it is the foreign fighters and the heavily trained locals and probably outright Eritrean army units which have fought and held to the bitter end.

This also should quash any doubts about the ICU in Somalia being anything other than a growing hive for terrorism exactly like the Taleban in Somalia.

Link to thread 2

The Islamic Regime in Somalia reported to collapse.

Islamists fleeing from the capitol.

Islamists begin to hand their weapons over to the clan leaders, indicating a very serious collapse, as they're not attempting to leave to conduct guerrilla warfare.

And finally, the leadership of the ICU resigns. They phrased their message, encouraging the Islamists everywhere to secure strong-points for the sake of order, as suggesting to me that they plan guerrilla operations against the Ethiopians.

What is clear however is that even my wildest dreams about the Ethiopian operations have been exceeded here. The Ethiopian Army is limited only by supply in how fast they can arrive in Mogadishu; the old warlord of Jowhar (no definite indications on the status of that city yet) thinks by tomorrow they'll be in the capitol; I doubt that, but with only limited pockets of foreign fighters, often surrounded, providing any kind of resistance, they will be there soon.

The question is what happens next in Somalia. For the first time, the transitional government may actually have authority over up to one-fourth of the country's territory, and the whole capitol besides, if the clans of Mogadishu do not try to organize their own resistance, which seems now quite unlikely.

The biggest thing here is that the Ethiopians have shown that they have fully digested the lessons of the Border War and have whipped their army into a surprising degree of competence, perhaps as the best fighting force in Africa. This campaign was conducted professionally as a sophisticated maneouvre operation which used mechanized forces to chop the Islamist forces into a series of disconnected and leaderless pockets. It appears that in most cases the Islamist units simply collapsed as word spread that Ethiopian tanks were in their rear areas.

The Eritreans are not happy campers today, as this makes the Ethiopian reoccupation of the disputed regions from early this year something that they cannot reliably contest by force of arms, and paints bleak any conflict against Ethiopia they might have to fight.

I would not call the Ethiopians a modern army in any sense, on account of the weakness of their opposition, but they certainly have at least reached an early-WW2 level of tactical sophistication.

[Marek_Tucan]

I won't say the Ethiopean army is ill-trained, definitely not by region¨s standards IMO, their equipment atleast looks in good order what will suggest some training and discipline - contrary to rusted and worn off equipment Somali and ICU militias are using on most pics. Plus there is combat experience from clhes with Eritrea, so while i won't expect Ethiopia to be all that good by Western standards, by African standards (see this link, though from Liberia it tells alot Liberian combat techniques ) it's well trained. After all various African militias usually get into serious trouble when even a small group with certain combat training appears. From what I've read on this subject various military advisors (both governmental or mercenary) to various militia forces found that between these a common trait was to CLOSE EYES wehn shooting the rifle

No wonder some I believe British UN observer stated that the safest place where to stand during a firefight with those types is the very point they are aiming at as everywhere else the bullets from teir full-auto rock'n'roll are flying

[MarkSheppard]

The Duchess has remarked in the past that the Ethiopians are at least on the tactical level, equivalent to WWI armies; their great counteroffensive against the Eitreian army was very similar to the Russian Brusilov offensive of WWI; lines of men marching in waves, albeit with tank support.

[MarkSheppard]

The capabilities of the Ethiopian Army.

They use primarily 50's vintage Soviet equipment, except for a small cadre of fairly modern jet fighters which were acquired during the border war with Eritrea. They have this equipment, however, in copious numbers.

Generally speaking the Ethiopian mobilization system has been constantly improved since the war with Eritrea with an eye toward a second conflict with that nation; accordingly, it's probably likely that the Ethiopians can call well more than a million men to the colours with extensive efforts at mobilization but because of garrison duties in various areas of the country and the need to send on the order of 400,000 + men to the border with Eritrea if conflict resumes there, in no case should one expect a commitment of more than 200,000 men to Somalia, and that only after on the order of six - eight months of mobilization.

At the moment it seems that around 35 - 40,000 Ethiopian troops are either in Somalia or along the Ethiopian-Somali border and entering Somalia. They are well-equipped with tanks, but mostly T-55s and so on. Technicals form motorized units for the most part rather than dedicated IFVs. They do have a single elite paratroop regiment. They are well-equipped with artillery; it is entirely towed.

In general, Ethiopian tactics are based around using their immense manpower and mass to their advantage. They are capable of highly sophisticated strategic encirclement operations after achieving breakthrough, which was brought the Border War to a close (and caused them great resentment and hatred toward the UN, which promptly ignored the result of the fighting and awarded the disputed territory to Eritrea).

In terms of breakthrough, however, their tactics are exceptionally primitive. They are best described as the mass tactics of General Brusilov in the First World War. The essential Ethiopian plan for the final Battle of Badme (There were three over the course of the war) was to launch attacks on every point of the front, as thanks to massive attrition they outnumbered the Eritreans by at least 2.5:1 (For instance it's claimed that between 23 February to 26 March 1999, the Eritreans suffered 45,000 casualties, though this is not confirmed); by the final victorious offensives in May of 2000 the Ethiopians had around 700,000 men on the Front; the Eritreans, 250 - 300,000.

With all sectors engaged in massed offensives, the vast Ethiopian reserves were then committed at Badme, supported by concentrated tanks and a paradrop operation behind enemy lines, with Ukrainian-piloted Sukhois providing air cover and engaging in desultory bombing. In three days of fighting at least 15,000 and possibly 25,000 Ethiopian troops were killed or wounded but the Ethiopians broke through and were able to decisively exploit their successes. Had the UN not intervened, they would have quite possibly overrun the whole country of Eritrea.

Their actual field tactics are strictly human waves, and best approximate the sort of tactics employed by the British in 1917. Tanks advance at the front in line after a preparatory barrage, with the infantry following in tight columns, tens of thousands of men being employed in a single attack. Attacks are pressed with utter disregard to casualties. Eritrean soldiers from the battle of Tsorona, for instance, reported firing their AK-47s on full automatic "until they were to hot to hold", lines of Ethiopian troops toppling the whole time, until they were at last beaten back.

The Ethiopians admit to 70,000 combat fatalities and probably on the order of 210,000 wounded in the Border War; the Eritreans admit to 100,000 killed and wounded in total. Both are probably underestimations; the conflict was accurately described as "1950s technology, WW1 tactics, 19th century medicine."

The main Ethiopian hindrance toward operating in Somalia with large forces is logistics. The Ogaden is a vicious wasteland with few roads and to my knowledge no railroads. Conversely, however, the Somalians have no ability to develop vast and sophisticated entrenchments like the Eritreans could, and the Ethiopians have complete air dominance, the same as we do over Iraq, though they can use it to far less effect. Their forces in Somalia or near the border are armour heavy, and they have certainly learned lessons and applied them from the conflict with Eritrea, particularly post-breakthrough manoeuvre after the final Battle of Badme.

The support of the population is largely irrelevant in this case; the government, though democratic in a vague sense, rules over people culturally inured to death and suffering, and they are fully capable of sustaining mass casualties at impressive ratios; if Ethiopia had the same size population as the USA, they would have had 300,000+ dead soldiers. As many as one out of every 500 males in the country died in the conflict.

In terms of their ability to fight the Somalians, as long as they remain in formation and have artillery and prepared machine-gun emplacement support, their positions are essentially unassailable. They have a preponderence of armour, and they do not break in action but their units hold together under even murderous fire, as Tsorona demonstrated. They are the sophisticated army of an organized, Christian civilization, with a long tradition of vigorous combat against the forces of Islam, during which they were always victorious and retained their independence. Primitive by our standards, I nonetheless expect them to perform against the Somalians as well as a colonial army against a tribalist force.

I would not be surprised if they end up not only reaching but rather brutally sacking Mogadishu; one thing is clear, they will not adhere to the laws of war save in a more perfunctory manner, and those mostly traditional rather than Geneva. That said, the conflict will not be a short one, unless negotiations cause a halt in it; nor will their progress be swift. The Ethiopians, perhaps fittingly as they're also an Orthodox and Oriental civilization, will operate methodically in the Russian style to shove the enemy back on every front, and willingly engage in butchery if necessary to suppress partisan resistance. The Somalians don't have the terrain of the Afghanis to resist that, nor a modern benefactor (Only Eritrea and the Arab gulf states). Their main hope is in getting Eritrea to act against Ethiopia, creating a broader conflict.

If this happens, the Horn of Africa could quickly be embroiled in a conflict as devastating as the First World War: The Sudan and Kenya might get involved on the Moorish and Ethiopian sides respectively

[Smersh]

this cuaght my attention "...with Ukrainian-piloted Sukhois providing air cover"

Ukranians fighting in the conflict? or is this some kind of typo.

[Marcello]

"Ukranians fighting in the conflict?"

Learning how to use a T-55 isn't like learning how to use a high performance jet. A SU-27 is a slighty more intricate matter than a 50's soviet tank.If you do not have the luxury of being able to wait for years for the training of pilots and technicians you will need to hire mercs.
During the Cold War it was common practice for the USSR and eastern countries to send pilots to fight for their clients, even for wars in which they were not particularly involved. Now it is still happening, for cash only.