China vs North Korea - October 2006

[MarkSheppard]

Basically from a nother board:

China reaches the tipping point with North Korea's nuke test, and demands a complete nuclear disarmament and halt to nuclear weapons development in North Korea. China begins to amass a massive ground and air force on the North Korean border. North Korea tells China to shove it, and declares that "any nation" that threatens North Korea will face nuclear attack. This is the last straw, and China invades North Korea, intending to replace the regime with a China-friendly leadership.

What forces would China need to complete an invasion of North Korea? How long would it take to overcome and occupy North Korea? What would the US, Japan, South Korea, the UN, etc. have to say?

Could be a very interesting campaign done here.

[cbreedon]

I played a little generated campaign this weekend with S Korea, Japana and China vs N Korea. It was fun although unlikely ....

[serg3d]

Woudln't China just roll over N. Korean forces, like US over regular Iraq army? N. Korea military mostly deterrent against S. Korea now - huge number of artillery tubes pointed to S. Korea cities, but that wouldn't work against China.

[MarkSheppard]

I'm not so sure about that; the norks have spent the last 50+ years preparing for war, the country is likely one giant armed camp; remember, until very recently, apartment buildings in Seoul were built with bunkers at ground level as part of the design.

[whdonnelly]

I've got to agree with you. Physically, the country has been prepared like Tarawa or Iwo Jima. If the KPA chooses to fight, it could get ugly. The end isn't in doubt, just the price to get there.

[serg3d]

Howevre defectors witness that army moral is low, army is poorly fed and low on fuel. Also in such political-economical situation army would be poorly trained. About fortifications - most of fortifications probably on the south and along coast lines. Anyway in 1941 German army passed through two Russian fortification lines ("Molotov line" and "Stalin line") barely slowing. Qualitative difference between China and North Korea Army probably no less then betwenn 1941 German and Russian Armies. Also China wouldn't be hindered by "humanitarian" issues.

[pdoktar]

I concur with serg3d here. If a conflict broke out, i think the NK army would at least suffer from desertations and bad morale. No bunker, tank, or artillery will fight without the human will to fight.

[whdonnelly]

While I think there would undoubtedly be desertions, increasing as the war went on, this is a nation unlike any other. The last three generations have been isolated and brainwashed to a great degree. For every unit that folded early, you would possibly have several that would fight to the last desperate soldier, thinking of the Japanese on Okinawa. Not through love of the Dear Leader, but through xenophobic fear. It is hard to win hearts and minds when all communication is blocked.

[Mobhack]

hmm - China (with or without say japanese and S Korean Allies) vs North Korea.

Well - the only exterior threat the NK provides is nukes (fledgeling at the moment, no certified delivery system as at present). Artillery onto S Korea, and air and the army coming out to invade.

Such an alliance really has no need to "go into" NK.

1) The air belongs to the anti-NK alliance. Check the NK AA assets, and the NK air force is not much either. The chinese air force is superior enough in quality already, to deal with NK air and AAA. then Add SK and JPN as alliance members. Russia - may join on the nuclear issue in a near neighbour, but at least will be in political opposition to NK.

2) The artillery assets can be dealt with once air control is assured.

3) the NK army is not really large enough to attack everyone, especially China (which has the worlds largest army in any case!). Any NK army adventure would therefore likely be towards SK - and would bounce the US assets there placed specifically against such a threat (no peace treaty was signed - just an armistice after the Korean war), bringing the US on-side to the alliance, if it were not there already. NK is now in opposition to 2 of the worlds "superpowers", one situated immediately next door. Maybe 3 if Russia is ticked off enough by the nuke issue to join (actively or passively) in the alliance. UN may well be persuaded to be on-side to the anti-NK grouping and provide a useful resolution or 2 to "legitimise" the deal politically. Precisely the opposite case of the Korean war (where they had CHIN and USSR on-side vs the UN forces). Hmm - NK has now allied the USA+CHIN agin them. Err - Oops..

4) NK is being hugely supported by foreign food aid. They cannot feed themselves, and it may well be that the food aid is being siphoned off to the military, with the peasants coming in way behind.

So - (assuming a military response) - Isolate the country by seige. (armies deployed on the borders, naval asets interdicting all trade, any subs dealt with by ASW assets if they venture out etc). Establish total air supremacy (remove thier air and AA assets), and then deal with any artillery assets, troop concentrations, and any suspected atomic development. As there are no civilian vehicles in NK - any moving traffic can be assumed military and so can be smacked with no "filtering" problems as in say the Balkans operations etc.

meanwhile turn the food aid off. (this response could be part of a non-military reponse).

Now - just grind them down by siege, and wait for a coup to replace the leadership with someone more conducive to a peace. If there does need to be an invasion - then the Iraq model should work. A long air campaign, then invasion only to sweep the mess up once reduced to innefectiveness.

Cheers
Andy

[whdonnelly]

Here's a twist. Following the aforementioned collapse of the North Korean regime, China, Russia, NATO, and Japan all send in ground troops to administer the north, search for WMD, whatever occupation duty is needed. South Korea suddenly feels like they are being treated like a junior partner and tells the other nations to leave Korean soil. China, with whom the border has never been settled, decides to stay. Now you have the South, the Northern remnants, maybe NATO, against everyone else.
Unlikely, ugly, but a more interesting game.
Will