OT: Climbing System Requirements and Specs

[Thermodyne]

Right now there are basically 8 markets,

1) Home user looking for a deal
This is the sub $1000 market, everyone has a piece, but profits are slim It is a high
volume area, but price driven. When Vista ships, profits should improve.
2) Home user looking for a high end system
High end trophy system (hangs head in shame).
Gaming systems. Of note here would be that Dell introduced a $10,000 over-clocked
dual SLI system and sold them out in a week. They also bought out Alienware,
probably so as to enter the AMD high end market. Alienware has allocations from
AMD, and Dell does not. AMD is sold out of many high end chips and probably could
not supply Dell until a new fab comes on line. This area is a money maker so long as
the economy stays good. As said above, there is a lot of disposable income out there at
the moment.
3) Media PC’s
This area is a good profit center, but it just never took off the way it was expected to.
If sales don’t pick up, it will become a nich market.
4) Personal use Laptop
Big market with all sectors doing well. But rapidly shifting to a price driven model
which hurts bottom lines.
4) Cooperate word processor
Has been very good for the last few of years, but starting to fade. The systems
purchased during the 2000 build out are being replaced, which has driven this area, but
most of that has been completed. The industry does not see this as a good market for
the next several years. Vista could help sales in this market.
5) Cooperate servers
Lots of movement here. Server count has exploded in the last few years, and while
these are still good systems, they have created a lot of unforeseen problems. Basically, they
are using to much energy. They require a lot of power and create a lot of heat. And
because of the smaller sizes, rack density has become a real issue. Look for rack
mounted 3 phase to DC power conversion, with the servers running on pre converted
DC power. This alone gives almost a 30% power savings. Also look for the next
generation of chips to run much cooler at a lower wattage. These will start shipping
before the end of the year, Intel has samples now. And as always, there is already
some movement on the Hill to create a tax credit for IT energy saying purchases. This
should be a big market for the next few years. With electricity costs set to explode this
summer, IT managers will be able to justify a lot of new hardware.
6) Cooperate Laptops/Tablets
Hot market, and should remain hot as long as the economy stays good.
7) Developed third world
This is seen a growth market, but everyone is still trying to figure out how to make a
profit.
8) Undeveloped third world
Last untapped market. Of late there has been a lot of talk about $100 laptops to “give”
away to these people. Until someone figures out how to make money from it, this will
remain an area for future growth.

Now for the spoiler. ATT having again become a giant in the industry is looking to change the
rules. The huge internet pipe network that they run is basically free for us to use. And it should
be. Most of it was built with grants and tax credits, some was even paid for by the tax payers.
Now they want to charge a toll for the use of their pipes, just as they do with their trunk POTs
lines. They claim that they only want big users like Google to pay, but the legislation they are
pushing would allow them to surcharge every user and charge premiums for certain protocols
such as VPN. If they get their way, the cost of going online could double. This will have a
noticeable impact on the PC industry. Some studies suggest that new sales will fall off 20% and
that online gaming would be adversely impacted to the tune of an 80% decline. Just imagine if
Geo got a bill for $100 plus every month from ATT on top of what he already pays. And for
no additional service provided. Most of us would be looking at $10 to $20 a month. And if
every pipe manager came on board, only god knows who you might owe at the end of the
month. And you might even see a decline in service as internet routers were programmed to use
the most profitable pipes. I wouldn’t trust ATT to route me over to the shortest-quickest route.
They will choke their own pipes before giving toll income to another carrier. Just think about it,
you pay $29 a month for your service, and ever time you go on line the meter starts running.
Google search, 10 cents. Send a turn to PBW, 20 cents. Down load patches, 25 cents. Sure,
they claim it they wont charge users, but if the law allows them to charge, how long will it be
before the bills show up in the mail?