Petition to change LUCK\ORDER Scales

Originally posted by Saber Cherry:
If you are up for more tests, I'd suggest Order 0 & Luck +3, and Order 0 & Luck -3, to see if the base event frequency changes. I'd do it but I'm lazy.

Did it:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

The #'s are within the formula's we were given; which is nice to know. It is just the fact of the good events weighing in less than the bad events.

I don't mind 20% Loss of Population event if on the good side I could get a 10% increase.

Did one Last test, as suggested :
Order O and Luck -3 = 39 events / 82 turns, 28 bad events (6 disasters) and still 11 good events.

[Truper]

Hmmm. Order 0 and luck +3. Nearly 4 times as many good events as bad, 1 disaster and one joyous windfall...

Seems viable to me. The 21% less gold on a turn to turn basis will be somewhat painful, but I'd guess largely compensated by the good events. Perhaps there's hope for me in that MP game after all...

[Treebeard]

One of the best things of the luck scale is the chance of getting mines. If you start in a mountain or get some mountain terrain quick, chances are good you'll start to discover new mines pretty quick. In one game I found three in my home province in 20 turns.

[Saber Cherry]

Originally posted by Sunray_be:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

Yes. Order does NOT reduce event frequency by 10% per level, assuming this test is representative. More like 25% per level, which makes it even more valuable than previously thought. I think I'll always go with +3 order now. Thanks for all your effort!

-Cherry

P.S. In 0%-5% magic site games, luck is very valuable, as the main source of non-national gems. But otherwise...

[Pocus]

Awesome work Sunray, we can draw some probabilities from what you have done.

To sum up :
- Order 0 & Luck 0 = 36 events in 82 turns. 20 good events (I've been lucky) but 5 disasters.
- Order-3 & Luck +3 = 88 events in 82 turns. 61 good events (including the 1500 gold, for a total of 3245 gp bonuses). But still 7 big disasters!
- Order+3 & Luck-3 = 6 events in 123 turns. Only minor effects.

Did it:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

Order O and Luck -3 = 39 events / 82 turns, 28 bad events (6 disasters) and still 11 good events.

what we knows from IW : probability of good event at luck 0 : 50%. Adjustment from luck : +-10%

what we deduce from your tests :

probability of drawing an event (max 2) at order 0 : 50%
probability of drawing an event at order 3 : 10%

=> I would say that order modify event probability by +- 13% - 15%

Taking your figures, and computing the theorical numbers now that would give:

order 0 : 36 events / 82 turns
theorically would give 41 events, not far.

order -3 : 88 events events / 82 turns
theorically would give 82 events, not far.

order 3 : 6 events / 123 turns
theorically would give 6 events, perfect fit!
etc.

Common Race designs :

In order we believe :
with Order 3 Luck -3 you have 5% chance of getting an event, with 80% of it being bad.

Lady Luck:
With Order -3 Luck +3, you have one event a turn in average, with 80% of being good.

On the safe side:
With Order 0 Luck +1, you have 50% of having an event, with 60% chances of it being good. (People generally takes that for national heroes too).