Petition to change LUCK\ORDER Scales

[Treebeard]

One of the best things of the luck scale is the chance of getting mines. If you start in a mountain or get some mountain terrain quick, chances are good you'll start to discover new mines pretty quick. In one game I found three in my home province in 20 turns.

[Saber Cherry]

Originally posted by Sunray_be:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

Yes. Order does NOT reduce event frequency by 10% per level, assuming this test is representative. More like 25% per level, which makes it even more valuable than previously thought. I think I'll always go with +3 order now. Thanks for all your effort!

-Cherry

P.S. In 0%-5% magic site games, luck is very valuable, as the main source of non-national gems. But otherwise...

[Pocus]

Awesome work Sunray, we can draw some probabilities from what you have done.

To sum up :
- Order 0 & Luck 0 = 36 events in 82 turns. 20 good events (I've been lucky) but 5 disasters.
- Order-3 & Luck +3 = 88 events in 82 turns. 61 good events (including the 1500 gold, for a total of 3245 gp bonuses). But still 7 big disasters!
- Order+3 & Luck-3 = 6 events in 123 turns. Only minor effects.

Did it:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

Order O and Luck -3 = 39 events / 82 turns, 28 bad events (6 disasters) and still 11 good events.

what we knows from IW : probability of good event at luck 0 : 50%. Adjustment from luck : +-10%

what we deduce from your tests :

probability of drawing an event (max 2) at order 0 : 50%
probability of drawing an event at order 3 : 10%

=> I would say that order modify event probability by +- 13% - 15%

Taking your figures, and computing the theorical numbers now that would give:

order 0 : 36 events / 82 turns
theorically would give 41 events, not far.

order -3 : 88 events events / 82 turns
theorically would give 82 events, not far.

order 3 : 6 events / 123 turns
theorically would give 6 events, perfect fit!
etc.

Common Race designs :

In order we believe :
with Order 3 Luck -3 you have 5% chance of getting an event, with 80% of it being bad.

Lady Luck:
With Order -3 Luck +3, you have one event a turn in average, with 80% of being good.

On the safe side:
With Order 0 Luck +1, you have 50% of having an event, with 60% chances of it being good. (People generally takes that for national heroes too).

[Treebeard]

I think order/turmoil change the probability of events too much. Perhaps having it match luck scale (i.e. 10% per level) would level order 3/unluck 3 and turmoil 3/luck 3.

[Saber Cherry]

Originally posted by Treebeard:
I think order/turmoil change the probability of events too much. Perhaps having it match luck scale (i.e. 10% per level) would level order 3/unluck 3 and turmoil 3/luck 3.

Yeah... with a weak gold economy, order 3 is very desirable... and with that, there are barely any events, so blowing points on luck is crazy.

-Cherry

[ November 27, 2003, 17:40: Message edited by: Saber Cherry ]

[ywl]

Another person has proposed this before but I can't find who he is .

I think over it the other day and find giving Luck a small income bonus/penalty may also help. The appropriate number should be somewhat similar or slightly less than growth, e.g. +/-2%.

It's not unrealistic - luck help making money. People can still use Order +3/Luck -3. But with the income bonus/penalty acting against each other, it's a self-defeating setting. I have no problem with Order +3/Luck 0 as you have to spend points to get the bonus.

[Gandalf Parker]

It seems to me that Order-3/Luck+3 becomes viable in fast games on small maps. Possibly even average ones. One of the "tester minded" people who have longer attention spans than I do might want to do a run on this. How do the many good-luck events provide in comparison to high-order taxation?

Actually in my testing of all things "stupid to choose" Ive actually had abit of fun with "stupid" scale settings. For insteance, some races can benefit greatly from the many blessings achievable by taking all -3 scales. Many blessings as in having 4 in every magic (sometimes 5 in each) with one magic at 9 or 10. I started testing this thinking Id have to be take really low dominion power and plan to pretty much abandon the capital province by turn 10 (when most events kick in) but so far it hasnt been all that bad. With some thinking and nations its quite a useable tactic.