New Version of Ashikaga Here

[Pickles]

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Originally posted by Graeme Dice:
You need 2 of the 3 elemental picks to come up as fire for devils, which basically means that they will show up quite often.
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Reply from Bayush:-

"Well, let's see the probability. I count 20 different combinations of FAWE in a configuration of 3: FEW/FAW/FAE/AWE/FFW/FFE/FFA/AAF/AAW/AAE/WWF/WWA/WWE/EEF/EEA/EEW/FFF/AAA/EEE/WWW

Of those, 4 of them have FF. That leads to a .2 probability of getting a Fire-2 'Blood Mystic'. Not _too_ often. You can expect to get a Fire-2 'Blood Mystic' every 3rd or 4th Mystic you buy. That's not 'quite often' to me. Certainly, you can expect it before too long. OTOH, there is a .327 probability that you can hire 5 and not get one. If you think a .2 probability is 'quite often', then you have to agree that a .308 probability is more than 'quite often'."


Actually there are 64 possible picks of which 10 feature "FF" FFF FFW FFE FFA FEF FWF FAF AFF WFF EFF so the probability is < 1 in 6.
There is a 57% chance of not getting one after 5 picks.

You have a 90% chance of getting one after 14 picks.

Of course this just reinforces your argument

Pickles