Another Newbie Slugfest - Restarted

[Steerpike]

Hmmm...Not everything is measured by defeats.
You mentioned the Romans being defeated by the Northern German Tribes, that may be true of the western Roman empire but the eastern Roman empire based in Bysantium( Constantinople, Istanbul)survived until 1453 when it was taken by the turks from the South.
The Southern states (Florida,Ohio) won Dubya the Last two elections (much to my dismay).
America was defeated by the NVA. North beats North.
Prussia kicked *** I will give ya that.
Purely from a cultural viewpoint, and only looking at Europe mediteranean area you have the Empires of Egypt, Greece and Rome all in the south these bad boys have so much influence on our lives today (Roman Law, Greek Philosophy, Egyptian ...ahh..Monuments).
I could go on.
Lastly I come from the South of Australia and Australia Roooolz.

We have the biggest Reef in the world, Deserts, Rainforest, Snow, wierd@$$ Fauna like the Platypus, 8 of the top ten most deadly snakes, poisonous Spiders, jellyfish which will kill you in two minutes, great white sharks that dont actually eat you but kill you seeing if they can and a little Octopus that will kill ya as well.
No wonder there is only 20 million of us.
And you dont know how much that line about studying history made me laugh.

[Boron]

Steerpike said:
And you dont know how much that line about studying history made me laugh.

Yeah that was the only purpose of this post
So mission accomplished

[PashaDawg]

Steerpike said:

The Southern states (Florida,Ohio) won Dubya the Last two elections (much to my dismay).

Tsk. Tsk. Every good Australian should know that Ohio is a midwestern state and not a southern state. Shocking. Simply shocking!

[Beorne]

Now that the root of all evil (Mitclan) has been completly defeated, the great north western Arco alliance will surely prevail.

Good luck to the new masters of my former territory!

[Aku]

So Panter...that ID that died to independents that was a big shocker. I was watching the battle and was like wtf.

[The Panther]

Very weird indeed. I had 18 attack to their 13 defense and missed on all four attacks! The odds of that are 0.01% or 1 in 10,000. Maybe I should avoid the lottery today!

[Aku]

or maybe play the lottery because that bad luck will be countered with an extreme chance of good luck!

[Steerpike]

You mean an indie province did better than my nicely equiped Son of Niefel! (Siiighhh)

[Boron]

The Panther said:
Very weird indeed. I had 18 attack to their 13 defense and missed on all four attacks! The odds of that are 0.01% or 1 in 10,000. Maybe I should avoid the lottery today!

Hm i think i have the solution now :
I don't remember the battle exactly ( i.e. your gear etc. ) but an ID has a base strength of 18-20 .
Iirc you had as weapon a blood thorn , no strength boosters .

So depending on your ID you would have had 20-22 ( wpndamage of bloodthorn 2 ) + 2d6 oe vs. 20 protection + 2d6 oe damage throw .
If i am right ( not really sure if i used the probability right ) you should have a chance of about 75% to do damage .

With 18 attack vs. 13 defense you have 85,5% chance to inflict damage .
With 24 strength+wpndamage vs. 20 protection you have 79,7% hitting chance , with 23 strength+weapondamage ( if you used the Cimejes ID ) you have 72,6% chance to inflict damage .

If you hit but don't do damage then i think no blood is shown . So you can't say if you did hit but did no damage or simply didn't hit .
The new probabilities for 2 attacks should be then :
Cimejes ID :
Probability to hit and do damage : 0,855x0,726 = 0,62073
-> Probability to do no damage = 1 - 0,62073 = 0,37927
for 2 attacks : 0,1438...

Other IDs :
Probability to hit and do damage : 0,855x0,797 = 0,681435
-> Probability to do no damage = 1 - 0,62073 = 0,3185
for 2 attacks : 0,1014...

So depending on your ID you used you would have a chance to do no damage with both attacks in a battle round of either 14,38% or 10,14% .

For 4 attacks it should be then 2,06% or 1,03% .

Thats still rare but possible .

And there is finally 1 additional thing :
Are you sure your IDs had 18 attack ?
Every 20 points of fatigue lower the attack value by 1 .
I am not sure if that is shown .
With buffing + encumberance you should have at least about 20 fatigue before fighting though , maybe after the first combat round even 40 .

In case these values are not shown correcty you would have had an attack of only 17 in first combat round and of only 16 in 2nd combat round maybe .
Every point of such reduction gives almost 7% less hitting chance .
If this is true your odds would be even a bit worse .

Depending if my Last theory is true or not the chance for happening what happened to your ID should be in the range of 1:20 - 1:100 .
So you still had very bad luck but the odds weren't as bad as you thought ( if all my theories were true , which might not be the case ) .

[Steerpike]

87% of all statistics are made up.
Yours sound sooo convincing though Boron that I would give them a 1% chance of being incorrect.
Are you a mathematician?...seriously!
Kick a$$ doood.
Now work out what Stonebrows chances of winning were.