Another Newbie Slugfest - Restarted

[Boron]

The Panther said:
Very weird indeed. I had 18 attack to their 13 defense and missed on all four attacks! The odds of that are 0.01% or 1 in 10,000. Maybe I should avoid the lottery today!

Hm i think i have the solution now :
I don't remember the battle exactly ( i.e. your gear etc. ) but an ID has a base strength of 18-20 .
Iirc you had as weapon a blood thorn , no strength boosters .

So depending on your ID you would have had 20-22 ( wpndamage of bloodthorn 2 ) + 2d6 oe vs. 20 protection + 2d6 oe damage throw .
If i am right ( not really sure if i used the probability right ) you should have a chance of about 75% to do damage .

With 18 attack vs. 13 defense you have 85,5% chance to inflict damage .
With 24 strength+wpndamage vs. 20 protection you have 79,7% hitting chance , with 23 strength+weapondamage ( if you used the Cimejes ID ) you have 72,6% chance to inflict damage .

If you hit but don't do damage then i think no blood is shown . So you can't say if you did hit but did no damage or simply didn't hit .
The new probabilities for 2 attacks should be then :
Cimejes ID :
Probability to hit and do damage : 0,855x0,726 = 0,62073
-> Probability to do no damage = 1 - 0,62073 = 0,37927
for 2 attacks : 0,1438...

Other IDs :
Probability to hit and do damage : 0,855x0,797 = 0,681435
-> Probability to do no damage = 1 - 0,62073 = 0,3185
for 2 attacks : 0,1014...

So depending on your ID you used you would have a chance to do no damage with both attacks in a battle round of either 14,38% or 10,14% .

For 4 attacks it should be then 2,06% or 1,03% .

Thats still rare but possible .

And there is finally 1 additional thing :
Are you sure your IDs had 18 attack ?
Every 20 points of fatigue lower the attack value by 1 .
I am not sure if that is shown .
With buffing + encumberance you should have at least about 20 fatigue before fighting though , maybe after the first combat round even 40 .

In case these values are not shown correcty you would have had an attack of only 17 in first combat round and of only 16 in 2nd combat round maybe .
Every point of such reduction gives almost 7% less hitting chance .
If this is true your odds would be even a bit worse .

Depending if my Last theory is true or not the chance for happening what happened to your ID should be in the range of 1:20 - 1:100 .
So you still had very bad luck but the odds weren't as bad as you thought ( if all my theories were true , which might not be the case ) .