America the Police State

geoschmo · #1 February 7th, 2005, 10:58 PM

Isn't the most obvious clue that this guy is bunk the fact that his dates for when things will begin are changing? "The civil war started in 2004", until 2004 comes and goes and no civil war, and no "Waco type incidents" have occured, much less one a month. So now it's "the civil war started in 2005..."

Baron, you seriously think that if Waco type events were happening we wouldn't hear about it? Even if you believe the mainstream media is totally co-opted, we'd be hearing about it on the progressive blogs. If Daily Kos is taken off the net, I'll start worrying.

Baron Munchausen · #2 February 8th, 2005, 01:30 AM

No, the dates are not changing. He left in early 2001 and has not returned (though some hoaxers have tried to impersonate him). This material is the same as it was four years ago. Other people may represent it as saying something one time and then as saying something else at another time, but the original material is the same as it was. (This can be checked with things like the Google cache or the web archive site.) There is some fuzziness in the material itself, but he is trying to describe a gradual process of increasing violence and hostility. And isn't that just how it would have to occur?

And no, I would not expect these events to be completely hidden but it's very early in the predicted time frame. They might not start up for months yet. If we get to 2006 and there is still absolutely no trace of violence it will be much more certain that nothing is happening.

Suicide Junkie · #3 February 8th, 2005, 01:36 AM

Actually, if we get to 2006, and there is no trace of violence in the US, then something IS definitely happening... or has already finished happening.

Emotionless body snatchers from outer space, perhaps, or just an old fashioned glassing.

TurinTurambar · #4 February 8th, 2005, 04:01 AM

.....wow.....

sachmo · #5 February 8th, 2005, 12:23 PM

Bunk, I say!!

I always wondered what happens when these things are proven wrong. Where I live, there was this large sect who were told the world would end on some date in 2001, I think. Anyway, it didn't happen, so they just sort of packed up and went home. I was facinated by what would happen next in their lives? Would they revise the "prophecy"? Would they try to find a new calling? Was everything invalidated?

Just odd.

AMF · #6 February 8th, 2005, 12:52 PM

If you read the stuff closely, you'll see that everything he says will happen is right out of a libertarian wet dream with a good bit of US rural militia thrown in.

In his future,

Everything is decentralized.
Everyone carries guns.
Everyone has any religion they want, and there is much less intolerance based on different beleifs
The 3 billion people that died were the government, and they were "the right people"
Everyone lives in the rural areas and is self-reliant
Anyone who doesn't pull their own weight gets ostracized and kicked out
People often travel via horse - just like a bunch of cowboys.
The Constitution was "re-read and interpreted like it was originally intended to be"
Everyone is in the army and everyone has a role in defense of the village
They still sort of live in "forts"

Waco was the "first shot of the civil war" (there are a lot more important Waco-type events that could have been used instead, frankly. Elian Gonzales, anyone?)

The "civil war" was all about the guv'mint taking over your rights and oppressing people. Therefore, learn how to use a gun, know what you need to survive on in the wild, andhave a kit bag of things you must have if you need to leave in ten minutes. Stockpile water, water filters, and MREs...Oh, and read the Constitution because all americans have forgotten what it origianlly meant

In other words: Occams' Razor practically screams that this is some computer literate militia-man with a history degree who wanted to find some way to up the odds that his vision of a libertarian future would come about. How to do this? Pretend like you're from the future to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The real kicker comes when you look at it as if you were testing a scientific hypothesis: nothing he says can be either proven OR disproven. Therefore, it is pointless. It's like a variety of political or economic theory proponents. For example, Marxists are the worst: they say "look at the world and it's class system/wealth distribution/etc. and it clearly shows that Marxist theory is accurate" And then, if you confront them with a contradiction, they say "Oh, well Marxism accounts for that too by X,Y, and Z."

The point being that if the person making the argument does not give you any way of disproving them, then they are full of BS because they can say everything in the world is explained by their theory. Its' a standard old debating trick, also see it a lot in poorly done academic research.

This guy is a charlatan, if for no other reason than that.

But, it does make a great read. I love reading stuff like that. And, of course, it filled me with angst about the future. I immediately thought about selling all my stock - he's obviously a good writer, and has some sort of gut appeal. More power to him, I say. But, it's still just silly, and in the same vein as the various cults who say the world is gonna end...and when it doesn't, hey, suddenly, all the beleivers were pure enough of heart to stave off world destruction...yeah, right...

Alarik