winMBT low percentile hits

[Weasel]

Ok, I ran a test in winmbt against human opponents counting the number of times a tank's main gun fires and hits/misses, or a missile hits/misses. Here is what I got after 200 shots, H=hit, M=miss

3% 1H
4% 1H 1M
5% 2M
7% 1M
8% 1H 1M
9% 2M
11% 1M
12% 1H 2M
14% 3H 4M
15% 1M
16% 3H 4M
17% 2H 1M
18% 3M
19% 2M
20% 2H 3M
21% 4H 1M
22% 2H 2M
23% 2H 4M
24% 5H 3M
25% 5H 3M
26% 2H 4M
27% 1H 4M
28% 3M
29% 3H 2M
30% 2H 6M
31% 1H 2M
32% 2H 1M
33% 6M
34% 1H 4M
35% 1H 1M
36% 1H 2M
37% 1M
38% 1M
40% 3H
41% 1H 3M
42% 4H 3M
43% 3M
44% 2H 1M
45% 2M
47% 2H 1M
48% 1M
49% 1H
50% 2M
51% 1H 2M
52% 1H
53% 1H 1M
54% 2H
55% 2M
56% 1M
57% 1H
60% 1H 1M
61% 2M
63% 1H 5M
64% 1M
66% 1H
67% 2H
68% 1H
71% 1H 1M
73% 3H
74% 1H
75% 2H 1M
76% 1H
78% 1H
79% 2H
85% 1H
90% 1H
91% 1H
93% 1H
94% 2H 1M
99% 4H

As you can see from above the majority of % to hit in winMBT are below 50% yet you still have about a 61% to hit. Now I am no scientist and I don't know how much value the above table is, but it seems to me that if you have a low % shot take it as the odds seem pretty good that the round will strike home.

[narwan]

Some quick math based on your table shows that the average hit percentage per shot for those at 20% or lower is 12%.

14 out of 42 shots were hits though giving a 33%.

Are your scores based on the % shown in the 'target' screen or the listed percentages on screen when actually firing?

[Weasel]

The % are the final % shown when the shot is fired.

[Weasel]

So was this ever looked at? Just wondering as the game continues to kill at incredible low odds (just lost 5 M18s to 25% chances or less from long range). BTW Narwan, I am not sure of your math, but my math of 20% or less shots shows that out of a total of 42 shots fired, 14 hit or 33%, shouldn't this max out a 20%? And if you go to 25% then 32 hit out of 73 shots, or 44%.

[Wdll]

No.
20% is for each hit, not for all your hits added together.

[rfisher]

The lucky shots trouble me too.
I'll be honest here, I am a cheat! I always save my games at the begining of a turn, and if I loose something important to a 1% shot, or if my last milan round fails to hit the enemies last tank, despite a 99% hit chance, I simply load the turn up again. It is because to do otherwise makes the previous two hours of playing feel pointless, if everything else was done right.
I am torn though, because I do see that there should be wild cards, and a 1% chance to hit, is still a very real chance. In games terms however, I sometimes think I want some things to be more concrete.
I sometimes wish you could have a 'fluke cut-off' point ie below 10% to hit, will always miss and above 90% will always hit. That sort of thing.
Or an optional firing button that instead of firing each shot seperately, it would fire all 'at once' and guarantee your odds ie if you have 6 shots and a 50% hit chance you would always get 3 hits.

[Marek_Tucan]

Statistics don't work that way, you may fire 6 shots at 50% and still come off with 0 hits IRL It's as tossing the coin, you can get a short-term sequence of same results, however in the long run they tend to even out.