OT: Climbing System Requirements and Specs

[Thermodyne]

Right now there are basically 8 markets,

1) Home user looking for a deal
This is the sub $1000 market, everyone has a piece, but profits are slim It is a high
volume area, but price driven. When Vista ships, profits should improve.
2) Home user looking for a high end system
High end trophy system (hangs head in shame).
Gaming systems. Of note here would be that Dell introduced a $10,000 over-clocked
dual SLI system and sold them out in a week. They also bought out Alienware,
probably so as to enter the AMD high end market. Alienware has allocations from
AMD, and Dell does not. AMD is sold out of many high end chips and probably could
not supply Dell until a new fab comes on line. This area is a money maker so long as
the economy stays good. As said above, there is a lot of disposable income out there at
the moment.
3) Media PC’s
This area is a good profit center, but it just never took off the way it was expected to.
If sales don’t pick up, it will become a nich market.
4) Personal use Laptop
Big market with all sectors doing well. But rapidly shifting to a price driven model
which hurts bottom lines.
4) Cooperate word processor
Has been very good for the last few of years, but starting to fade. The systems
purchased during the 2000 build out are being replaced, which has driven this area, but
most of that has been completed. The industry does not see this as a good market for
the next several years. Vista could help sales in this market.
5) Cooperate servers
Lots of movement here. Server count has exploded in the last few years, and while
these are still good systems, they have created a lot of unforeseen problems. Basically, they
are using to much energy. They require a lot of power and create a lot of heat. And
because of the smaller sizes, rack density has become a real issue. Look for rack
mounted 3 phase to DC power conversion, with the servers running on pre converted
DC power. This alone gives almost a 30% power savings. Also look for the next
generation of chips to run much cooler at a lower wattage. These will start shipping
before the end of the year, Intel has samples now. And as always, there is already
some movement on the Hill to create a tax credit for IT energy saying purchases. This
should be a big market for the next few years. With electricity costs set to explode this
summer, IT managers will be able to justify a lot of new hardware.
6) Cooperate Laptops/Tablets
Hot market, and should remain hot as long as the economy stays good.
7) Developed third world
This is seen a growth market, but everyone is still trying to figure out how to make a
profit.
8) Undeveloped third world
Last untapped market. Of late there has been a lot of talk about $100 laptops to “give”
away to these people. Until someone figures out how to make money from it, this will
remain an area for future growth.

Now for the spoiler. ATT having again become a giant in the industry is looking to change the
rules. The huge internet pipe network that they run is basically free for us to use. And it should
be. Most of it was built with grants and tax credits, some was even paid for by the tax payers.
Now they want to charge a toll for the use of their pipes, just as they do with their trunk POTs
lines. They claim that they only want big users like Google to pay, but the legislation they are
pushing would allow them to surcharge every user and charge premiums for certain protocols
such as VPN. If they get their way, the cost of going online could double. This will have a
noticeable impact on the PC industry. Some studies suggest that new sales will fall off 20% and
that online gaming would be adversely impacted to the tune of an 80% decline. Just imagine if
Geo got a bill for $100 plus every month from ATT on top of what he already pays. And for
no additional service provided. Most of us would be looking at $10 to $20 a month. And if
every pipe manager came on board, only god knows who you might owe at the end of the
month. And you might even see a decline in service as internet routers were programmed to use
the most profitable pipes. I wouldn’t trust ATT to route me over to the shortest-quickest route.
They will choke their own pipes before giving toll income to another carrier. Just think about it,
you pay $29 a month for your service, and ever time you go on line the meter starts running.
Google search, 10 cents. Send a turn to PBW, 20 cents. Down load patches, 25 cents. Sure,
they claim it they wont charge users, but if the law allows them to charge, how long will it be
before the bills show up in the mail?

[Renegade 13]

Thermo, why do you think Vista will help improve sales of hardware? Is it simply a case of the new OS requiring better hardware than the previous incarnations?

Also, with reference to ATT trying to charge users...I assume that they are American, and would not effect those of us up to the North? As far as I know, they're an American only company, so...I hope!

[Fyron]

You will still get the shaft, however. Since you don't pay AT&T for the premium service, your connections will be routed poorly. Certainly, servers for which you can get a path that does not go through anywhere is the US will not be affected. However, it will definitely affect every bit of traffic coming from web servers that is hosted or possibly even just passes through the US (on their lines, of course). If Google, Yahoo, MS, Ebay, etc., and all the little guys, have to start paying bucket loads of cash on top of what they and their users already pay for IP services from the likes of AT&T, they will be much less inclined to offer anything freely to anyone, in the US or no. Or if they still manage to make ends meet with free services, they will be even more heavily ad-based than they are now. Tiered Internet is good for noone.

[Thermodyne]

Hey, something is wrong here, Fryron and Thermodyne are of the same mind about something.

[Suicide Junkie]

If we're lucky, their competitors will take the opportunity to cut them off. If they get given the shaft by ISPs who don't want to pay them extra, then the whole idea could die.

[Fyron]

AT&T? Competitors? With the recent merger of SBC with AT&T, we are almost back to square one with Ma Bell.

[Thermodyne]

Renegade 13 said:
Thermo, why do you think Vista will help improve sales of hardware? Is it simply a case of the new OS requiring better hardware than the previous incarnations?

Also, with reference to ATT trying to charge users...I assume that they are American, and would not effect those of us up to the North? As far as I know, they're an American only company, so...I hope!

Historically, new OS’s cause users to go out and buy a new PC. Most Joe users don’t want to fool with doing a install at home. And MS says that they will not push the upgrade pkg very hard, preferring to have users upgrade to faster hardware at the same time. Most likely a lesson learned from the XP upgrade problems they had. Drivers are going to be an issue on upgrades early on, so they probably didn’t really want to support a bunch of old hardware either. And, you can bet that the Intel guys and the Dell girl will be pushing the benefits of a new system running Vista, so MS will sit back and let them spend the ad money. MS has already said that the OEM’s will get Corp Vista months before anyone else, and Dell says they will get the home version 90 days before it is boxed.

In the business world, there will be a lot of demand for the new security features and the cooperate world is not big on upgrading existing hardware. At my job we get free upgrades, but almost never actually do any. Higher management prefers to use a new OS’s as a reason to justify new hardware. In the cooperate world, the IT equipment budget is almost always the target of the first axe swing, so the managers have learned to be creative when seeking funds. Security being an issue, it is also become a way to deflect the axe.

ATT owns Backbone Fiber all over the world. If they are allowed to bill for usage, they will pass it on. Even if you don’t pay them directly, you will pay some way. It might mean a higher ISP fee, or where you live, probably some type of user fee added to your ISP bill. And if they get this influx of cash, it will be feeding time for the sharks. The big fish will gobble up the little fish. It’s already started in the US and EU.

This is a really bad thing, so if you live in the States, you need to start shooting off email to your Senators and MC’s. Hopefully, this will take an act of congress and require a bill before both houses. That will give us the opportunity to show our dislike of it. But at the moment, AT&T is trying to get it done with just a hearing at the FCC. And if they get what they want, word is that the EU is ready to fall in line behind them.