OT: A Nuclear North Korea

[Atrocities]

Hey guys, please keep on topic if you would and avoid the the temptations to of being distracted by past events. While everyone has the right to an opinion about how we got here, its would be better for the health of the topic if we just let the past stay in the past and focus on the current topic of what do we do now.

There is no need to get into a point counter point dicussion of who is to blame. The Bush comments just take us off topic so please again, don't dwell on them. Thanks.

[geoschmo]

The US has no military options, and frankly NK knows this or they wouldn't have taken this step. We've been bled dry in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our reserves in manpower and materiel have been depleted to the point where I'm not even sure we could sustain a long term conventional air campaign. Our only option that will have any effect is the tacNukes and that has political side effects which are incalculable.

As distastful as it sounds, I think we've reached the point where the only military option, if we think the non-military options are gone, is to basically give China a permission slip to annex North Korea. North Korea survives at their pleasure as it is now. I can't imagine the people of North Korea could be any worse off as an official part of China than they are now.

Edit: Of course this assumes that China would be interested in taking such action. My gut tells me they might if they had assurances from the international community there would be no repercussions.

[StarShadow]

Non-Military options? Since the whole thing started NK only wanted to talk with the US, not a group of 5 or 6 countries, just the US. According to all the news reports early on, NK just wanted a non-agression treaty with the US, it wouldn't have hurt anything for the US to discuss that with them and possibly reach some kind of agreement.

[Possum]

Folks, make no mistake. This is not a minor issue.

I'm a dove, FFS. I was against the invasion of Iraq. I vote 3rd party, even if I am an NRA member.

But North Korea with nuclear weapons is serious potential for armageddon. They will use them or they will sell them to those who will.

Screw Iraq, and screw Afghanistan, and screw the UN too, if they won't stop dithering and act. This situation demands action, and it demands action right now.

Now we find out once and for all whether or not Bushboy Junior has any stones. His daddy did. Ronnie Reagan had a big ol' hairy pair.

And somewhere the shade of Douglas Macarthur is shouting, "WAKE UP, YOU FOOLS, WAKE UP!"

[ToddT]

Since the whole thing started? before i was born, neclaera weapons capabilty probly last 10 years, anything truly viable, right now not very. as for the non-aggresion treaty. Technically North Korea and South Korea are still at war just having a very long running cease fire. Part of the non aggression treaty would most likely require US to leave south Korea. Both Koreas would like reunifiction. Catch, under very different terms. How long would south Korean military survive on its own? remember North Korea wants a non aggression treaty with US not South Korea.
I believe part of the reason for the nuke test was the failure of thier long range missile test.
The Korean situation has been a mess for decades, Kim il, has being milking it for his ends for a good part of that time. He portays the US as the "boogey man" that he is protecting his people from (come to think of it Suddam started doing the same thing) So how much do you really think he wanted that to change, maybe nough to comfort himself, but I doubt much beyond that, well possibly staged internal proganda. The people have a radio in thier houses that runs 24/7 one station.
And Remeber the N. Korea has basicly said We want Talks an NA or else. They have for most part bargained with threats.

The whole is just one large festering mess.
And as bad as things are now if N.K falls (no matter how) it will be a humanitarian disaster, something South Korea fears since it will most like bear the brunt of that fall out as well.

[geoschmo]

StarShadow said:
Non-Military options? Since the whole thing started NK only wanted to talk with the US, not a group of 5 or 6 countries, just the US. According to all the news reports early on, NK just wanted a non-agression treaty with the US, it wouldn't have hurt anything for the US to discuss that with them and possibly reach some kind of agreement.

True, and personally I agree that there are likely still some non-military options left. I was simply trying to make the point that if it comes to that it's going to have to be something other than US action that resolves the matter. It's like we are trying to bluff at cards when the other side knows full well that we've got a crap hand.

[Thermodyne]

This is a little more difficult than any of the posts indicate. Our actions in Korea are linked to agreements made by Kissinger back in the seventies. They are linked to more than one other country in the region, and they are strategic in nature. If the US wanted a war in Korea, we could win it with forces on hand today, and not pulling down the forces in Iraq. It would take a little while to re-theater them, as they have been working with another region in mind, but in a pinch they could begin moving in a week. Korea is small narrow peninsula, easily reachable in total from naval air. And at least one carrier is in the region right now, Kitty Hawk in the Indian Ocean IIRC. And Stennis and Eisenhower are surge ready. So we are not totally without the ability to use force. We just don’t have the will. And let’s face it; we won’t have the will unless the North invades the South. You don’t have to occupy the whole of North Korea to win. Just prevent the movement of fuel and supplies. And not for very long, the NK army can not live off the land unless they invaded the south, and you can bet that scorched earth would be the first thing they found south of the mine fields. Some reports have them draining fuel from parked armored vehicles to heat their barracks in the winter. The Chicoms could tip the scales, but they have other scales to worry about, billions of bucks on one side and isolation on the other.

Oh and to set an issue straight here, everyone who was at war with North Korea in the 50’s is still at war today. And that was a large part of the free world of the day. All that was signed was a temporary armistice. The UN is the lead agency on that front, so how could the US ever sit down alone with NK and sign a peace treaty. That is a tired old ploy that the North has been using for thirty years, but people still fall for it.

Iran is doing the same thing. They invaded US soil and took the US embassy, severing diplomatic relations with the US. Now that they have removed the tools of communicating diplomacy, they complain of not having face to face talks. Then after we agree to the talks we will then spend years arguing about protocols, since none will be in place. Anyone old enough to recall the same problem with the NK’s? Not me, I was a little after that but I read about it. And I do recall the same issue with the NV’s; over a year to decide on a table and where to sit. That’s why civilized nations have and use rules of diplomatic contact. Do any of you realize how many low level meetings took place between the US and the USSR before the big boys met in Iceland? And Iran wants to just put aside their past acts and have a sit down in a mater of weeks. Makes me think that perhaps they have a schedule to meet and they are some months short at the moment. Spend some time hashing it out with the US, then let the EU back out. Then start over with the French and have the US kill the deal. Then before you know it, you have the Persian bomb. I’ll bet Iran had to refigure their calendar after the partial event in Korea. What a joke, we use bigger bangs than that just to get things going good on a B83. I also wonder who will have to go salvage the bomb site. I’d bet that the NK’s would spend several thousand lives to recover a few ounces of reusable material.

And in closing, nuclear containment is a myth. It’s used as a diplomatic cattle prod, a tool of state policy. There was never a remote hope of keeping them out of the third world. And there is no hope of keeping them out of the hands of non-state groups. It was only a fight to delay the spread until the defenses caught up. We can’t even keep France from testing them, how could we keep Iran or Korea from doing it? So one day in a country near you, someone will use one on a neighbor, then receive anther in return. But what the heck, if we kill off a few billion and block out a lot of sunlight, we can solve global warming and the energy problem all at once.

[Renegade 13]

You're right, sooner or later someone is going to nuke someone else. Likely there won't be any notice either, just one day a city will cease to exist.

It's not a question of preventing nukes from being used; that's impossible. Sometime, someone crazy enough, mad enough or psychotic enough will either obtain a nuke, or come into power in a country that already has 'em, and say "what the hell" and blow someone up. The question is how long that day can be delayed, and what will be done once it can be delayed no longer.

[TerranC]

geoschmo said:
As distastful as it sounds, I think we've reached the point where the only military option, if we think the non-military options are gone, is to basically give China a permission slip to annex North Korea. North Korea survives at their pleasure as it is now. I can't imagine the people of North Korea could be any worse off as an official part of China than they are now.

There are couple of other options available that just might force China to stop supporting NK without turning it into the Chosen Autonomous Province of the PRC that just might kill the once-communist, now-fascist regime:

We threaten China with the prospect of a fully-nuclearized, politically-able, militarily self-sufficient Japan and Taiwan if the NK problem isn't dealt with swiftly,

We let the Kim family have safe exile in China in exchange that he turn over everything to the SK authorities,

We (any and every sensible nation) threaten to boycott the 2008 olympics, citing the NK threat and human rights abuses and China's tacit support, which just might cause the chinese to drastically cut support in order to save face,

We put restrictions on chinese trade, that is to say, incoming chinese goods and outgoing investments to china, citing some vague political reason or whatnot but giving subtle hints as to link it with the situation on the Korean peninsula,

Make the chinese turn a blind eye to the North Korean refugees that want to go south by giving the chinese authorities incentives to let them freely go to other countries such as Vietnam or Mongolia (but not to embassies) and thereby bleed NK dry,

or the US makes a trade: Taiwan for North Korea; The US rescinds all military agreements made with Taiwan in exchange for China's guaranteed non-involvement with North Korea.

All these options are unattractive, and none of them are foolproof; in each and every one, China could always bargain for more, call the US' bluff, or just simply dishonor the agreement, but these are the options that doesn't involve the potential death of 10s of millions of people and the wrecking of the world's major and budding economies.

Of course this assumes that China would be interested in taking such action. My gut tells me they might if they had assurances from the international community there would be no repercussions.

Not just might, the chinese certainly would: They have a million Korean-Chinese that speak both Mandarin and Korean ready to be used as political commisars or whatnot at their disposal, and the chinese have been active in their historical reevaluation (read: revisionism) in portraying that Goguryo, an ancient kingdom that straddled Lower Manchuria and Northern Korea (that probably never was Chinese or Korean as we know them today) as a chinese tributary that was founded by chinese and was populated by ancient chinese.

[Atrocities]

So the latest news is that Kim Jong-il has said that unless the US returns to one on one talks with NK, they will launch a nuclear tipped warhead.

This just proves that he intends to black mail the world into giving in to his demands. "I want my cakes and I want too be able to eat it too."

Simply put, this is all about the all might Kim Jong-il and his desire for power and respect. He got away with murder by lying to the world, and now he, like a modern day con man, wants the good times to role yet once again.

If there were ever a need for the open contract for assissination of a standing head of state, this bastard would be prime target number one. Just think, if someone would have had the balls to waste that puke Hitler early in the 1930's, how many lives would have been saved. This is a no brainer. Lets put a 1 billion dollar bounty on the head of Kim Jong-il and let the cards fall where they may.