Luck : +1 => Turn 2 => lab destroyed event !!!

[thejeff]

Yeah, we get that it's really bad when it happens.

But it should also be really unlikely, especially with positive luck scales. So in some cases if you can expand faster by not building mages, it's worth the risk.

And hardly a major blunder worthy of the "what a stupid thing to do" attitude.

More interesting the question originally asked: What are the chances? Does anyone have even a rough estimate? I suppose you could run a few hundred first turns to see. If it's one in 10 games, worth planning for. One in a hundred probably not a major concern.


Also worthy of note that some nations have mages recruitable without a lab: Vaetti hags, Magisters and Judges, anyone with only random paths.