OT: The Future of Computer Strategy Games

[dogscoff]

I think turn-based 4X games are going to continue to fall farther behind other genres in terms of taking advantage of increased computing capabilities.

I disagree. In fact, I could argue the opposite, as long as by "increased computing abilities" you don't just mean "better graphics cards".
How long does it take to process a turn in SE4 on a pentium-II 350? How long would it take to process the same turn on a top-of-the-line quad-code whatever-the-hell-they're-selling-these-days? How's that for tkaing advantage of increased computing abilities?

I think the SE series is probably the only long-term viable business model - a joint labor of love between a programmer of the basic game engine and talented modders. There is probably enough money in selling the game engine to keep a one-man-band operation like MM going,

Something to consider here is that even though we occupy a niche, and that niche probably isn't gaining more market share, the market is a part of is getting bigger, so the customer base for this kind of game is expanding:

Suppose 4X fans represent 0.5% of all gamers.[1] Suppose that in 2001 there were 1 billion gamers worldwide. 0.5% of 1 billion gives 5 million potential customers for Malfador. Now suppose that by 2008 the number of gamers has risen to 1.5billion worldwide. The proportion of 4X fans hasn't risen- it's still 0.5% of all gamers, but 0.5% of 1.5billion is 7.5million- a much larger potential customer base for any 4X product, meaning more moeny for development than before. Now whether that extra money will all go to Malfador, or will be shared between other, competing 4X games is another issue, but the point is, even if we remain a tiny niche within the gamoverse, there will always be plenty of cash to fund future 4X development.

[1] All numbers plucked magically out of my arse, for demonstration purposes only.