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March 17th, 2008, 06:25 AM
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National Security Advisor
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Eastern Finland
Posts: 7,110
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Thanked 153 Times in 101 Posts
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Re: Luck and mind duels
I counted that there was 30/36 chance of an Atlantian mage dying, personally. That included victories for Arcos as well as ties (both die).
Arcos (S4) - Atlantis (S2) wins
1 vs 1, 2
2 vs 1, 2, 3,
3 vs 1, 2, 3, 4,
4 vs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
5 vs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
6 vs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
or 26 chances out of 36 (6*6).
Atlantis ties:
1 vs 3, 2 vs 4, 3 vs 5, 4 vs 6
or 4 times out of 36.
Ends up as 30/36 or 5/6 chance of Atlantian mages dying, for each Duel. I think that'd be (1/6)^3 or 1/216 or so chance of three mages not dying, out of three.
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March 17th, 2008, 08:48 AM
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General
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Join Date: Apr 2005
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Re: Luck and mind duels
I'm pretty sure luck (the ability, not the roll) doesn't affect Magic Duel. As I understand it, someone always dies in a duel, sometimes both. If luck applied as normal, it would have a chance of saving the loser and no one would die. Which is not what we see.
It's possible that the loser's luck causes the winner to die instead, but that would be weird.
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March 17th, 2008, 09:09 AM
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General
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Poland
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Re: Luck and mind duels
I think Dominions may have not the best random generator. For example strange results come when you recruit mages with small random [like 2,5-5%] and you get no random like that with 100+ mages recruited.
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March 17th, 2008, 09:42 AM
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National Security Advisor
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Eastern Finland
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Re: Luck and mind duels
With 5% random random, there's 8% chance of not getting it in 50 tries. (1-0.05)^50 == 0.077. With 2.5% random (10% chance with four options, only one of which is the one you want), the chance of not getting that random in 50 tries is 28%, and 8% in 100 tries. Sometimes you just get unlucky.
There seem to be weird numbers thrown around sometimes, but they're very hard to test.
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March 17th, 2008, 10:53 AM
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Major General
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Scotland
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Re: Luck and mind duels
8% is a pretty good chance of something not happening, really. The times when you get that 2.5% chance on your first recruit aren't mentioned so often (I've kept rather quiet when the 2.5% comes up in just the right way at the right time in an MP game, now I think about it...).
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March 17th, 2008, 09:50 PM
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Corporal
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: NW of Atlanta, GA
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Re: Luck and mind duels
All were Arco Astrologers...but they were two S4s and one S3. The lone S4 who won died the second time around (my Prophet).
So I lost a +2 Duel, then a +1, won a +2 and finally lost a +2. No ties.
Love to hear how Ylvali's test came out...I'd suggest trying it with a +6 difference. If the lower Astral mage wins then, you KNOW the shield is working! Try 10 tests, or until the lesser prevails.
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March 18th, 2008, 12:45 AM
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General
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: az
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Re: Luck and mind duels
Quote:
StormCrow434 said:
Love to hear how Ylvali's test came out...I'd suggest trying it with a +6 difference.
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Ylvali hasn't returned to the forums since he went to perform the testing. I imagine Ylvali must have included himself in the mind duel testing and lost.

__________________
There can be only one.
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March 18th, 2008, 04:29 AM
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Major
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Re: Luck and mind duels
Never Mind Duel with yourself. You will always lose.
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March 20th, 2008, 10:47 AM
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Sergeant
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Join Date: Mar 2005
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Re: Luck and mind duels
lol
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March 23rd, 2008, 10:25 PM
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Sergeant
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: sweden
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Re: Luck and mind duels
Quote:
NTJedi said:
Quote:
StormCrow434 said:
Love to hear how Ylvali's test came out...I'd suggest trying it with a +6 difference.
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Ylvali hasn't returned to the forums since he went to perform the testing. I imagine Ylvali must have included himself in the mind duel testing and lost.
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 Sorry Ive been busy. That test took some time to set up and then I got bored with it. Ill get back to ye when its don with complete results. Promise.
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