An introduction to Arga Dis, Blood and Bronze

[MaxWilson]

Amhazair said:

Is there anyone who can check my math for me here? In my MP game I recruited ~30 Augurs, without getting a single S3 one. That is of course within the realm of possibilities, but not very probable. (~2% actually, if my 1/8 chance is correct)

If you assume that all probabilities are independent... which is untrue pretty much by definition with a pseudorandom number generator. See the thread on revelers from last week.

-Max

[thejeff]

A good pseudorandom generator produces outputs that are for all intents and purposes independent. They are deterministic, but the type of output we're getting here will have no predictive value, making it as independent as it has any need to be.

This is not to guarantee that dominions uses a good pseudorandom generator. I've got no reason to believe it doesn't and patterns of these types of results don't convince me.

Especially when you consider that there are likely dozens to hundreds of random values used between one Auger's picks and the next. If there is some pattern in what picks your mages get, it's built into other parts of the code not in the RNG.

I'd bet on observer bias. The human brain is very good at detecting patterns. Even when they are not present.

[MaxWilson]

I'm thinking that the only way to find out is to turn on -dddd and examine the random outputs.

-Max

[HoneyBadger]

Don't be in any particular rush, Amhazair, F'Thaggua is a mess, and I'm not in a position to clean it up at the moment. But thanks for the offer