Re: How big is too big?
I'd say in depends on who you're playing with. If you are playing with very good people, expect to get murdered if you do something flashy and pick up 30 provinces the first year.
On the other hand, I have absolutely gotten away with taking >30 provinces when my neighbors were new to the game and didn't realize what a problem that was.
If you're playing to win, a big flashy expansion might be a good risk. On the one hand it greatly increases your odds of an early dogpile and death, but on the other hand the times when it doesn't get you dogpiled you are in a much better position to actually win.
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