Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Squirrelloid

assuming independent province by province checks with neutral scales, a 300 province territory should have a .9^300 chance for each event not happening, which as you might imagine is vanishingly small. (10^-14)

Ok, so we need a new model. Chris's model doesn't have any effect for empire size, so that clearly isn't right.

thejeff, is that data listing provinces in the order the events happened?

I still don't get the criticism.

I'm suggesting first determine how many provinces get event checks. Then run each event check through a provinces event mask.
But I'll do some tests...