Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[thejeff]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

But jeff, a lot of this is what I said. Make a list of all available luck events in a province. this is what I call the province mask

now, you could just make a full listing of all eligible events and then roll randomly against the list. number of provinces would then not figure into it at all

The question still becomes - how do you generate the number of times to roll against the list.

Whereas, if you check All of a provinces random events, you would see what we see empirically happening - much more events for luck +-3.

I think one of us is misunderstanding the other. Probably my fault, since I was describing how I came up with it as much as the theory itself.

Here's how it works under this theory:
First roll the chance of each of the 4 possible events, based on the capital (or pretender?) scales.
For each event generated, pick a random province. In each province pick a random event off the complete list. If the event is not possible, given the provinces scales, terrain and any other conditions, stop. No event happens. (Possibly, reroll a limited number of times.)

Thus, the more events your scales unlock, the more likely you'll actually get an event.
This should get similar effect to checking each possible event in a province with much less work and avoid some of the weirder side effects, such as events earlier in the list being more common than ones later in the list.

You get many more events for Luck +/-3 both do to the increase in chance of generating an event to start with and the increased number of events unlocked. I don't know enough about the number of events possible at different scales to guess how big the second factor is.

Does that make it more clear? Or am I still missing something?


I still think there's more going on. I'm not convinced that number of provinces doesn't play a role. I'll try to test a few more different size nations when I have the chance.
I'm also not sure about the base chances being based on capital scales. Possibly testable using 3L3T and skeptics to hold down capital dominion?

Also terrain plays a role in this. At the very least some events are only possible on land and others in the water. If there are less water events, then you should get less events in water provinces than elsewhere. This may be easier to test than events in different scales since terrain stays consistent and you don't have to worry about dominion spread.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by thejeff

Here's how it works under this theory:
First roll the chance of each of the 4 possible events, based on the capital (or pretender?) scales.
For each event generated, pick a random province. In each province pick a random event off the complete list. If the event is not possible, given the provinces scales, terrain and any other conditions, stop. No event happens. (Possibly, reroll a limited number of times.)

Thus, the more events your scales unlock, the more likely you'll actually get an event.

Ok, we agree on most of this. The difference is that I suggested choosing an event from a tailored list for the province
you suggested pulling a random event and then checking if its applicable. I mentioned that as a possibility as well.

Essentially, logically, this means

Generate # of luck events.
Generate event for each luck event
Randomly choose province.
See if province allows event.

We know that JK likes bit masks, so the last step would just be XORing the event bit mask with the province mask and if true applying the event.

This should get similar effect to checking each possible event in a province with much less work and avoid some of the weirder side effects, such as events earlier in the list being more common than ones later in the list.

I think thats a weekness, because if you take luck -3 and turmoil -3 you are going to get NEVER ENDING hordes of barbarians.

If you take Death 3 and misfortune 3 - you get never ending hordes of plague events.

It can't work this way - because the generation of the event would not generate all these barbarian events, death events.

You get many more events for Luck +/-3 both do to the increase in chance of generating an event to start with and the increased number of events unlocked. I don't know enough about the number of events possible at different scales to guess how big the second factor is.

If you look at the results for Luck 3 vs luck -3, the both should have the same number of events. Luck -3 had 20%(?) more events. The second factor (unlocking events) has to be huge.

Also, if you look at luck 0 vs luck -3 - they are generating 2.5 times the number of events. The luck difference is supposed to be 21% more events - but it is 250%.

I'm also not sure about the base chances being based on capital scales. Possibly testable using 3L3T and skeptics to hold down capital dominion?

Well, I think some useful tests are:

1. Make a mode that increases the order effect. Find out at what level you cease to get luck events.
This will allow us to isolate P(e).

Once you isolate P(e) you can check what effect dominion has. Personally I'm fairly sure that dominion is only relevent to determine the luck scale in a province.

2. Do a check with 1 province. Use turmoil 3 luck -3.
Examine the maxium number of events that occur Turns 1-10, Turns 11-20, 21-30, 30+

I'm pretty sure that you will see 4 events if you capture for 40 turns post turn 30.
And I'm bummed for not getting a single thanks for all these tests!!!

[thejeff]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

I think thats a weekness, because if you take luck -3 and turmoil -3 you are going to get NEVER ENDING hordes of barbarians.

If you take Death 3 and misfortune 3 - you get never ending hordes of plague events.

It can't work this way - because the generation of the event would not generate all these barbarian events, death events.

You're saying that events do seem to be weighted towards one end of the list? I'd expect that to manifest more as some events being more rare than they should be. Events early in the list will be more common, but only slightly so. To get the effects we see, P(eip) would have to be small enough that it makes it through the whole list fairly regularly, which means that any weighting towards the front of the list would be small. The cumulative effect might be large by the end, but still hard to detect.

If you look at the results for Luck 3 vs luck -3, the both should have the same number of events. Luck -3 had 20%(?) more events. The second factor (unlocking events) has to be huge.



Also, if you look at luck 0 vs luck -3 - they are generating 2.5 times the number of events. The luck difference is supposed to be 21% more events - but it is 250%.

The first seems very weird to me. Without knowing more about how many events are possible at each scale, I'd hesitate to draw any conclusions from it.

The second may not be strange. If the bonus from luck scales is just added to the base chance, then it wouldn't be 21% more events. Assuming 10% base chance for the sake of argument, 21% more events would be 10% *1.21 = 12.1% chance
Straight addition gives you 10%+21% = 31%, a 310% increase.

Well, I think some useful tests are:

1. Make a mode that increases the order effect. Find out at what level you cease to get luck events.
This will allow us to isolate P(e).

Once you isolate P(e) you can check what effect dominion has. Personally I'm fairly sure that dominion is only relevent to determine the luck scale in a province.

2. Do a check with 1 province. Use turmoil 3 luck -3.
Examine the maxium number of events that occur Turns 1-10, Turns 11-20, 21-30, 30+

I'm pretty sure that you will see 4 events if you capture for 40 turns post turn 30.
And I'm bummed for not getting a single thanks for all these tests!!!

Thanks for the tests

I've got a couple of things I want to try as well. I'm not as convinced as you are that number of provinces isn't a factor, so I want to run some tests with the scales I used before on smaller empires.

I'd also like to try something with a water nation, since there should be fewer events available underwater.

I really want a list of events & scales.