Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[thejeff]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

I think thats a weekness, because if you take luck -3 and turmoil -3 you are going to get NEVER ENDING hordes of barbarians.

If you take Death 3 and misfortune 3 - you get never ending hordes of plague events.

It can't work this way - because the generation of the event would not generate all these barbarian events, death events.

You're saying that events do seem to be weighted towards one end of the list? I'd expect that to manifest more as some events being more rare than they should be. Events early in the list will be more common, but only slightly so. To get the effects we see, P(eip) would have to be small enough that it makes it through the whole list fairly regularly, which means that any weighting towards the front of the list would be small. The cumulative effect might be large by the end, but still hard to detect.

If you look at the results for Luck 3 vs luck -3, the both should have the same number of events. Luck -3 had 20%(?) more events. The second factor (unlocking events) has to be huge.



Also, if you look at luck 0 vs luck -3 - they are generating 2.5 times the number of events. The luck difference is supposed to be 21% more events - but it is 250%.

The first seems very weird to me. Without knowing more about how many events are possible at each scale, I'd hesitate to draw any conclusions from it.

The second may not be strange. If the bonus from luck scales is just added to the base chance, then it wouldn't be 21% more events. Assuming 10% base chance for the sake of argument, 21% more events would be 10% *1.21 = 12.1% chance
Straight addition gives you 10%+21% = 31%, a 310% increase.

Well, I think some useful tests are:

1. Make a mode that increases the order effect. Find out at what level you cease to get luck events.
This will allow us to isolate P(e).

Once you isolate P(e) you can check what effect dominion has. Personally I'm fairly sure that dominion is only relevent to determine the luck scale in a province.

2. Do a check with 1 province. Use turmoil 3 luck -3.
Examine the maxium number of events that occur Turns 1-10, Turns 11-20, 21-30, 30+

I'm pretty sure that you will see 4 events if you capture for 40 turns post turn 30.
And I'm bummed for not getting a single thanks for all these tests!!!

Thanks for the tests

I've got a couple of things I want to try as well. I'm not as convinced as you are that number of provinces isn't a factor, so I want to run some tests with the scales I used before on smaller empires.

I'd also like to try something with a water nation, since there should be fewer events available underwater.

I really want a list of events & scales.