MP YARG3, non newb MA+ENP2 RAND game. Executor's Ulm winner on turn 76

WraithLord · #1 June 26th, 2012, 03:51 AM

Ok. There's a lesson I learned the hard way. I'll make sure no to make the same mistake again.
Basically I misjudged CY's reaction and over-reacted to it.

Now, to some fun guessing game. What would have happened had me and Eriu hadn't gone to war?

Who would've attacked Ulm first?

I know I was afraid to do so b/c I didn't know whether the others would join me or attack me instead.

rdonj · #2 June 26th, 2012, 04:28 AM

Well, had calahan still been playing, he seems to have been well in favor of heading in. I don't know what blanketthief was planning, but I read the "dossier" (longer it was than gandalf's beard!) calahan passed on to him, and let's just say that there were strong hints leveraged within that an attack on ulm would be the most prudent course of action.

It seems like the fear of being the first to attack the leader in the YARG series has been a pretty constant curse... everyone knows who the leader is, but is afraid to go in first and get smacked around for their trouble. Of course, that's a pretty natural fear. But it's interesting to see how many times the same scenario plays out. It probably doesn't help that even in diplo games, there's always that one nation that thinks it's a good idea to attack the guy who's trying to bring down the leader.

WraithLord · #3 June 26th, 2012, 04:34 AM

The charts put Eriu a close 2nd place to Ulm. So I assumed he will attack Ulm first.
The longer Eriu didn't attack Ulm the more suspicios I became of his intentions towards me.
Talk about making your fears come true.

Calahan · #4 June 26th, 2012, 04:42 AM

I think it, as always, comes down to having some faith in, and knowing, your fellow players. And being able to id them well before this point in the game (which is a big part od RAND format). When I subbed in and checked the unrevealed player list I immediately saw.. (no offence mockingbird and Curious Yellow, I've played less/no games with you guys to be able to predict your actions)

WraithLord
Executor
don_pablo
TwoBits
Slobby

...were all still playing, and since I know all of these players are also multi-game vets of RAND games (besides whatever other playing skill and intelligence they possess), I had strong faith in them following suit if I initiated a leader attack. Didn't know which nations these guys were playing, but odds were high they would be playing the main remaining nations (or at least the majority of them). If those fives names were replaced with five unknowns, then it would certainly cause me some hesitation. I might well attack the leader anyway, and if someone then attacks me then that's the way it goes, and I'll just have another name to add to my idiots list after the game.

But given the names of those remaining, I doubt if any attack on Ulm in this game would have resulted in the attacker being seen as a sudden target. Wish my resolve hadn't been shaken on turn 68 now, but oh well, honestly doubt Ulm could have been stopped by that stage. Delayed probably, but not stopped. (and think it would have been a shame if Ex had not won due to being delayed and quitting with MM overload)

WraithLord · #5 June 26th, 2012, 05:47 AM

I wanted to attack Ulm from very early on, I even gave the attack orders twice and aborted them right before sending the turn. It all came to blind trust issues my thoughts were:
A - why is Ctis turtling? Is he waiting for the right moment to attack?
B - why doesn't Eriu attack Ulm already? Is he planing to "grab" one more nation before that?

Next time I'll jump the leader re. Of consequences as Calahan suggested