What if...

[Suhiir]

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

While I agree that one cannot build a navy overnight( my son is joining the RN) China has in fact been building up her navy for some time now.
China is certainly a regional threat today to Japan, Australia and India for example and of course the US and even UK still have treaty obligations in that part of the world.

Also, as I said China is also very heavily involved in Africa, including helping to prop up such nasty leaders as Mugabe in Zimbabwe...

Probably why Japan has been rebuilding it's own navy, there is now a permanent USMC presence in Darwin, and the Philippines have been rearming.
I'm not downplaying China as a regional threat, it is. I'm just saying that on the world stage it's a paper tiger.
And as provocative as they are being locally I think it's a modern version of the Sudetenland/Austrian Annexation. The real question is ... how much will the rest of the world let them get away with before they say "ENOUGH!"

[FASTBOAT TOUGH]

I think we'll know within the year with China, when the International Court rules on the territorial issues concerning their man made islands in the South China Sea. They are actively pursuing an aggressive modernization of their Navy to include Carriers and "Nuc Boats" (Subs) and we've known about work with the Army and Air Force for awhile now. The "P.I." wants us back at least to Clark AFB as they have no real Air Force to speak of and we've been giving/or selling them decommissioned ASW class ships and as I'll post hopefully soon for instance modernized M113A2 tracks (~248) and as pointed out everyone from India (i.e. RAFALES etc.) "around the horn" to Japan (i.e. Poseidon ASW aircraft.) has increased their defense budgets. If theirs a "dust up" it could happen there, however I believe the economics involved will prevent it for quite some time it would appear that China's use of concrete (Worlds leading user more then Europe and U.S. combined last year.) to build the unpopulated cities could potentially make our mortgage crisis of 2008 look like a "burp" in comparison. 60 minutes (And others.) did an excellent story on this about 3yrs. ago- something creepy about an empty city built for 150,000 being completely empty and there were about seven of them at that time.

Russia is doing the same with their military and I know Sweden was a part of this conversation, to that issue I believe the "NORDIC ALLIANCE" (If you will.) agreement was signed last month or is very close to being signed. This was brought about by Russia's involvement in the Ukraine at the beginning of that crisis. The countries involved are Sweden, Finland and Norway. The obvious problem for Russia in attacking Sweden is the other two will respond, which legally could mean NATO by default could have to get involved as the other two are NATO members as you all know. Russia wouldn't risk it. We as in the U.S. are actually building and manning bases in the Baltic states and surrounding area such as Romania. Their only real land moves are and continue to be in the Ukraine for now though the Crimea certainly solidifies their position in regards to the Black Sea. Their Navy hasn't been this active with deployments in about 15-20yrs and their sphere influence is slowly expending, though Iran this week as now Iran flush with the released funds (And interest earned on them.) told Russia "We're not buying your T-90S tanks." they intend to develop a new one they say will be more advanced.

The next big war will either be economic or driven by economics/resources and I'll take that bet any day. For Europe it's easy for Russia they just turn off the spigot to the Natural Gas Europe depends upon so heavily. Russia just did that not that long ago and Merkel (Forgive my spelling.) of Germany threatened economic sanctions and Russia backed down quickly. Why? Because like the U.S. and China, Germany and Russia have deep economic ties that bind them together. If one fails it will hurt the other-again look at the news-things aren't great right now are they?

Weapons are tools-Economics drive the engine.

Though I hope during our visit in Oct. to Ireland the "engine" here will continue to run better than Europe's because right now the EURO is below the DOLLAR but the POUND could drop a little more before we get to ULSTER and maybe Scotland for a "quickie"! Yep another selfish American.

Well time to watch the World News and see what's going on. I hope you all have a GREAT and PROSPEROUS (I'm such a stinker.) weekend!!!!

Regards,
Pat

[Suhiir]

China is certainly a regional threat but it has quite a way to go before becoming a world threat (other then nuclear).
You don't build a fleet overnight, and you certainly don't get the training and experience needed to be anything but a 3rd rate one regardless of how technologically advanced your ships are in anything less then 15-20 years after you have enough ships built.
I don't care how big and advanced their army is if they can't get it anywhere and supply it once it's there it's not a major world threat.

[RecruitMonty]

Originally Posted by Suhiir

China is certainly a regional threat but it has quite a way to go before becoming a world threat (other then nuclear).
You don't build a fleet overnight, and you certainly don't get the training and experience needed to be anything but a 3rd rate one regardless of how technologically advanced your ships are in anything less then 15-20 years after you have enough ships built.
I don't care how big and advanced their army is if they can't get it anywhere and supply it once it's there it's not a major world threat.

Operating, of course, on the principal that China's competitors at the very least maintain their current standards / readiness throughout this 20-30 year period.

If the over-all quality of Western Navies deteriorates in the mean time then the experience gap becomes much smaller and is therefore more readily obtainable within a shorter time period.

Navies are expensive to run at the best of times. Sailors don't stay in the service nearly as long as they once used to either and I'm pretty sure that demographic shifts will play more of a role regarding over-all recruit quality/performance as time goes by in the West as well.

[DRG]

Logistics IS the key to everything related to military operations

[DRG]

You probably read this but some may not have

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...el-peace-prize

China hits a new low.....

If the purpose of Chinas "aid" to Mugabe is to keep the country a perpetual basket case they are doing a wonderful job

[DRG]

A supreme understatement..............