Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

At the risk of getting too political why would an anti immigration party in Sweden (and I presume it is anti Islamic immigration) be pro Putin and Russia?

Shared national-conservative views – along with being anti-EU and NATO skeptical...

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

Surely Putin's Russia is not the biggest threat to Sweden right now?

When it comes to hybrid warfare/conventional military capability Russia is viewed as the only potential aggressor. I think that goes for the anti-immigration party as well. Sweden does not expect to be invaded by Finland, NATO (not even Denmark ) or battalions of ISIS or Taliban Fighters...

Personally I think there are plenty of what-if scenarios involving Russia than could be made – and they wouldn't be all that far fetched.

[Airborne Rifles]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Personally I think there are plenty of what-if scenarios involving Russia than could be made – and they wouldn't be all that far fetched.

I agree. Lots of scenario options for both sides. Grant1pa's and SaS TrooP's are great. I'm really interested in the possibilities of a NATO counteroffensive into to wither liberate the occupied Baltics of seize Kaliningrad to act as a bargaining chip to get the Baltics back. I think both of these are not at all beyonf the realm of possibility.

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Shared national-conservative views – along with being anti-EU and NATO skeptical...

When it comes to hybrid warfare/conventional military capability Russia is viewed as the only potential aggressor. I think that goes for the anti-immigration party as well. Sweden does not expect to be invaded by Finland, NATO (not even Denmark ) or battalions of ISIS or Taliban Fighters...

Personally I think there are plenty of what-if scenarios involving Russia than could be made – and they wouldn't be all that far fetched.

With regard to EU right wing parties, those of Sweden as well, even as we may describe them as anti-immigration, what we, those living in America are beginning to realize is that Russia is acting to destabilize the republic and this view is gaining appreciation when we look across the Atlantic at France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. That EU right wing groups share an animus for the EU and they do agitate against their government policy that rocks the fundamental notion of a democracy. It could very well be a page from the Cold War novels of John le Carre (a Brit no doubt) to weaken the EU and NATO.

So, it may not be that the EU right wing is pro Russian but rather they are handled by Russian operatives.

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[IronDuke99]

Originally Posted by shahadi

With regard to EU right wing parties, those of Sweden as well, even as we may describe them as anti-immigration, what we, those living in America are beginning to realize is that Russia is acting to destabilize the republic and this view is gaining appreciation when we look across the Atlantic at France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. That EU right wing groups share an animus for the EU and they do agitate against their government policy that rocks the fundamental notion of a democracy. It could very well be a page from the Cold War novels of John le Carre (a Brit no doubt) to weaken the EU and NATO.

So, it may not be that the EU right wing is pro Russian but rather they are handled by Russian operatives.

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I hope you will forgive me for saying this is really utter nonsense. Even more so than the idea that most of the huge mass of millions of Islamic economic migrants in Europe these days are supporters of the Islamic State, although, of course, some certainly are.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

I hope you will forgive me for saying this is really utter nonsense.

I totally agree with IronDukes comment and I have already dropped subtle hints that threads like this are straying away from the game into politics. If you want to test reaction to paranoid conspiracy theories GO SOMEWHERE ELSE

....otherwise, if it continues it WILL end

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by DRG

I totally agree with IronDukes comment and I have already dropped subtle hints that threads like this are straying away from the game into politics. If you want to test reaction to paranoid conspiracy theories GO SOMEWHERE ELSE

....otherwise, if it continues it WILL end

I am not testing conspiracy theories, paranoid or otherwise. The intent of the post was to lay the foundation for a scenario where Russia takes in-direct military action in the Baltic countries as a result of activities to shape or influence opinion. It is not, most definitely not, a conspiracy theory. Simply read reputable journals and news organizations and you will come away with a different conclusion than the opinion expressed that Russia is actively engaged in activities to weaken the EU and NATO with influence operations by spies and cyber activities is a conspiracy theory.

In Newsweek, we have the following report,"...As in other European countries, radical groups in Lithuania often side with Russia, and Russia has often sided with environmental groups in Latvia and beyond in opposing fracking. “Not every radical group in Lithuania is connected to Russian intelligence services, but the Russians are taking advantage of them..." Source:http://www.newsweek.com/2014/12/19/s...ar-290686.html

In the UK's Telegraph we find the following, "...A dossier of “Russian influence activity” seen by The Sunday Telegraph identified Russian influence operations running in France, the Netherlands, Hungary as well as Austria and the Czech Republic, which has been identified by Russian agents as an entry-point into the Schengen free movement zone."
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ing-in-EU.html

In the US Time magazine we have a report on Russian influence operations in Latvia and Estonia, reading as follows, "They say he has established government-controlled humanitarian front organizations in their capitals, infiltrated their security services and energy industry companies, instigated nationalist riots and launched cyber attacks. The goal, says the Estonian Ambassador to the U.S., Marina Kaljurand, is 'to restore in one form or another the power of the Russian Federation on the lands where Russian people live.'" Source http://time.com/90752/inside-putins-...-spy-campaign/

Again, let me say, that I in no way peddle idle gossip or conspiracies. The talk here of politics, at least in this thread, as well as in others on the forum, as far as I understand, are intended to give background or context for a scenario.

Having said that, let me say, that I am working on producing how an Estonian or Latvian commander may order his forces to deter a massive armor assault. So, this thread may deal with the shape of a Russian invasion and alternately, possible Baltic states responses, in a way that designers may develop scenarios gaming those responses.

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