What happens in 2025? / new tactics- new technologies

[MarkSheppard]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...81037821919526

Ukrainian EW and drone specialist Serhii Flash estimates the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPVs to be around 30%, highly dependent on the unit.

Дуже багатьох цікавить питання ефективності FPV.

До целi долітає та попадае 30% FPV. Це середня цифра по країни. І то її ніхто ніколи не рахував, це просто моє припущення. В одних підрозділів вона може бути часом 70%, а в інших 20%.

Залежить це від таких факторів:
1. Якість БПЛА
2. Правильний підбір частот та протоколів для конкретної ділянки фронту
3. Активність російського РЕБ на дільниці фронту
4. Досвід пілотiв
5. Правильність та достовірність розвідки

Бувае так шо одним підрозділам постiйно дають «жирні» та точні цілі і вонi мають успішність 60%. Їх ставлять у приклад, всіх тягнуть під їхній показник, натомість замовчуючи, як він досягається

Я прошу великих командирів на фронтах «не гнати план». Зростання показників має бути з МІСЯЦЯМИ. Це означає, що підрозділ розвивається.
Але успішність на усiх фронтах різна.

Якщо цікавить моя особиста думка, то довгостроковий показник 50% - це дуже, дуже хороший результат. Але не завжди його реально досягти.

Many are interested in the question of FPV efficiency.

30% FPV reaches and hits the target. This is the average figure for the country. And no one has ever counted her, this is just my guess. In some divisions, it can sometimes be 70%, and in others 20%.

It depends on the following factors:

1. UAV quality
2. Correct selection of frequencies and protocols for a specific section of the front
3. The activity of the Russian EW on the front line
4. Experience of pilots
5. Correctness and reliability of intelligence

It happens that some divisions are constantly given "fat" and precise goals and they have a success rate of 60%. They are set as an example, everyone is dragged under their indicator, instead of keeping silent about how it is achieved

I ask the great commanders on the fronts "not to pursue the plan." The increase in indicators should be with MONTHS. This means that the unit is developing.

But success on all fronts is different.

If you're interested in my personal opinion, a long-term figure of 50% is a very, very good result. But it is not always realistic to achieve it.

[MarkSheppard]

The famous Bradley that mogged that T-90 has a drone jammer on the turret.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/...15646653948411

Apparently the average range of this type of jammer that AFU is using widely is 40 to 80 meters.

It doesn't stop drones from hovering 200-400 meters away and taking video of you with zoom lens; but it does mitigate a little bit of the suicide FPV drone threat...

...with one caveat...

...you've got to be moving. A jamming range of 40-50m means that if you're stationary; even if you jam a suicide FPV drone in it's attack dive, the ballistics of the drone will mean that it has a good chance of hitting you.

Rough figures...

Objects in free fall drop about 25 m/sec.

Average height of a 10-story building is about 30-35m.

A FPV UAV in power dive takes maybe 1 to 1.2 seconds to hit the target.

Bradleys are 6.55m long...figure an average speed of 7 m/sec so that a Bradley can clear it's own length through the aim point for the FPV UAV operator.

That's roughly 25 km/hr (or 15.6 mph).

Essentially, from the math above; if you have a EW Jammer...movement is life.

EDIT: I just realized that Drones themselves are causing combined arms. They force units to be mobile to avoid drone attack runs; which in turn makes the units visible and targets for other weapons systems on the battlefield.

EDIT II -- and of course someone pointed out that the NEXT generation of FPV kamikaze drones coming online will have machine recognition and AI tracking (currently available in larger stuff like Lancets); so they'd be able to track through jamming; unlike a remotely human operated UAV using a datalink.