Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[Suhiir]

Unless the "Soviet" (yes I used that work on purpose) mindset has changed since the 1970's when I was in the Intelligence business they're big believers in "Fait Accompli", do something quickly then stop at a point of their choosing and tell the rest of the world to "get over it".

If they want the Baltic States their seizure of certain German, Polish, Norwegian, and Swedish targets while also making that objective easier also gives them something to "withdraw from and return" in order to create the illusion they're not getting to keep everything they want. But, of course, the reality is they only really wanted the parts they wind up keeping.

Take that analysis for what it's worth from someone that's been out of the Intel/Intentions business for over 40 years.

[DRG]

I would use the Crimea as an example of that analysis being absolutely correct

Don

[shahadi]

The article (bild.de) assets the recent Russian exercises not as a grab for the Baltic states, but rather as a strike against NATO. Furthermore, the attacks on Germany, Poland, Norway, and the other countries mentioned are bombing targets and missile strikes, nothing about seizing territory. Troubling.

If Putin wanted the Baltics, then taking control of harbors, airfields, etc would not require striking other NATO countries. I dare say, strikes on Poland or Sweden and Norway would plunge into WWW3. While taking control of methods of ingress (Baltics) would suffice with a lower chance of a military NATO response.

BTW, has anyone read of the number of heavy armor formations in the Baltics, and has America stationed an additional carrier strike group in the Baltic sea?

Great read and excellent post.

[wulfir]

Myself I'm not convinced the Russians are really ready to take the plunge, but there is enough stuff going on to make what-if scenarios that would not be too far fetched IMO(and some have already been made, like Grant1pa's Norwegian/Finnish ones )

The Norwegian Home Guard base near Trondheim that houses the Marine rotational force was the first stop on Gen. Robert Neller's annual Christmas tour.

The stop was a new one for the tour. The first Norway rotation, from 1st Battalion, 2nd Marines, deployed in January and was replaced by a new unit from 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marines, in late August.

Neller emphasized to the Marines that they should remain ready to fight at all times, predicting a "big-*** fight" on the horizon.

"I hope I'm wrong, but there's a war coming," Neller said. " ... You're in a fight here, an informational fight, a political fight, by your presence."

Neller later told the Marines that he expects the Pacific and Russia to be the service's operational points of focus as the nation looks beyond the fights in the Middle East that have stretched into the better part of two decades.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/...mpression=true

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Myself I'm not convinced the Russians are really ready to take the plunge, but there is enough stuff going on to make what-if scenarios that would not be too far fetched IMO(and some have already been made, like Grant1pa's Norwegian/Finnish ones )

Yeah, I think you're right,"...there is enough stuff going on..." and the context is right for scenarios.

I also noted that Sargent Major Green holds a masters in Cybersecurity Policy from the University of Maryland University College. And, that the article (military.com) refers to the recently released National Security Strategy wherein the document discussed Russia's practice of "using information tools" to interfere with other nations' democracies and militant aggression that crosses borders.

[shahadi]

Could Poland's Tanks Stop Russia in a War?
(Gao, Johnny, Nationalinterest.org, 23 March 2018)

A very good article.

A commentator made the following comment: "Forget Russia, its payback time! How about Poland v Germany?"
Tongue in cheek, hopefully.

However, another commentor raised my eyebrow with the following: "...Pols are Slav and there is no way any real Russian will attack them." Wow, sounds like a Russian troll.