Random Events

[Saber Cherry]

Originally posted by Truper:
This makes no sense at all. Net 20, 40, 60. Net 10, 20, 30. Perfectly linear and rational.

The numbers I gave are the incremental improvements... just as going from defense skill 1 to defense skill 2 is worthless and going from defense skill 12 to defense skill 13 is very valuable, the proportional difference between luck 2 and 3 is much greater than the proportional difference between unluck 2 and 3, in terms of the number of bad events that occur.

-Cherry

[ November 18, 2003, 21:41: Message edited by: Saber Cherry ]

[Truper]

Saber:

Perhaps I am especially dense today, but I still can't follow your argument. Let's see if we can't pin down where my problem lies. I'm more comfortable with the way Licker stated things, so tell me whether or not you agree with the following:

Luck Scale %chance of bad event

+3 20
+2 30
+1 40
0 50
-1 60
-2 70
-3 80

And if you do agree that this is the way it works,is your argument then that going from luck +2 to luck +3 reduces the chance of a bad event by 1/3 but going from luck -2 to luck -3 only increases the chance by 1/7?

I apologise for the format - when I type it out its a nice clear table, but for some reason the board refuses to post it that way.

[ November 18, 2003, 22:50: Message edited by: Truper ]

[Saber Cherry]

Originally posted by Truper:
is your argument then that going from luck +2 to luck +3 reduces the chance of a bad event by 1/3 but going from luck -2 to luck -3 only increases the chance by 1/7?

Bingo! =) For the same reason, in Diablo II there were certain skills that had increasing returns - like the Amazon evade skill, a percent chance of evading all incoming attacks. Going from 0% to 10% is a 10% jump, but not very good. However, going from 80% to 90% is a 10% jump too, but of huge importance... because the correct way to evaluate the utility of the skill is 1/(1-evade). So 10% evade increases your power to 111%, 80% evade increases your power to 500%, and 90% increases your power to 1000% of normal.

As a result, Blizzard makes the evade skill give diminishing returns, like 33% evade for the first level, then 40% evade, then 46%, 51%, 56%, 60%, and so forth, or something like that... so that the incremental power increase stays fairly flat after the initial level.

-Cherry

[Truper]

Ok, now I understand where you are coming from, but I regard things diffently. It seems to me that "avoiding bad events" is an incomplete way of looking at the luck scale, and I'll still be perfectly happy to go from luck +2 to luck +3 whenever I can afford it. In fact, I enjoy a positive luck scale - nothing like opening up the new turn to discover that one of my fantically devoted disciples has found some magic trinket or other and brought it to my lab, or that "great riches have been found"

My only real problem with the mechanics of luck at this point is that order - the only scale that has any major effect on income - interferes with the luck I enjoy having.

[SurvivalistMerc]

Ok...and there is a base 40% chance to have a random event in a given turn? Or am I wrong about this?

If so....bad events at order 3, unluck 3 would be:

40%, less 30% events due to order 3, for 10% chance of an event
80% chance that a given random event is bad...
for a total 8 % chance of a bad event.....

At turmoil 3, luck 3, the chance for a bad event would be:

40%, plus 30% for turmoil 3, or 70% chance that a given event occurs....

only a 20% chance that a given event is bad...
for 14% chance of a bad event.

Thus, you overall will get fewer bad events with order 3, unluck 3?

(I do not pretend to know the details of the scales because I haven't gotten my game yet. It's been shipped, though. )

[Saber Cherry]

No...

The probability of an event occuring has to do with the number of provinces you own... but the formula is not public.