Updates in light of Ukraine war

[DRG]

Originally Posted by zovs66

This is a pretty fair and balanced French site (my browser auto translates).

https://lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com/

Yes, in particular.......

Appearance of improvised explosive devices (IED in English) in the area occupied by the 58th A ( Kherson region). Beginning of a rear guerrilla warfare.

AND THIS

Theory: Exhaustion

A month of continuous combat constitutes a psychological limit beyond which there is a rapid increase in collapses. Half of the evacuees then often show no physical injuries, assuming that they can be evacuated. After a month of intense fighting at Dien Bien Phu, a fifth of the defenders had "deserted in place" pending the end of the fighting along the Nam Youn River.

All of this is obviously highly variable, depending on the intensity of the fighting, the experience and the individual and collective solidity of the fighters, their motivation, but it is likely that a certain number of units engaged without interruption since the first days of combat in Ukraine (notably the Russian units west of kyiv or most of the forces engaged in Mariupol) are on the verge of psychic collapse. In these cases, it is not a replenishment forward that must be organized but a relief, and it is not obvious that the forces in combat in Ukraine, Russians in particular, are always capable of it.

[zovs66]

About conflicting information.

On the one side we have Ukraine and NATO reports of Russian losses in the 10-15k range in men, but from the Russian side you have an "official" report of 1,300 men in losses.

And then in the media (west and Ukrainian) you have images of tanks lost from 2-5 years ago, and nothing coming out of Russia.

Disinformation and propaganda on both sides.

[Aeraaa]

10-15K makes more sense than 1300 losses. the first number corresponds to 1.8-2.7 casualties/1000 troops/day. These are normal casualties for conventional operations of high intensity (even higher than that makes sense). The official number is basically a number vs. a very weak opponent, i.e. insurgents or similar type of enemy.

Ukrainian losses are probably on that range too (maybe slightly higher or slightly lower depending on how effective Russian firepower was). Note that losses from both sides can skyrocket if a major operational disaster happens (eg. supply trains breaking down or an encirclement).

[zovs66]

I am sure folks have read the Russian "official" reports.

"Russia - 1,351 dead and 3,825 wounded. ( 5176 totally looses for first month)
Ukraine - roughly 30,000, 14 thousand - dead, 16 thousand wounded."

And the Ukrainian and NATO reports.

"NATO estimates that, in total, 30,000 to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded or taken prisoner in Ukraine — an estimate based on the assumption that for every soldier killed, three are wounded, the official added."

So its like both sides are flipping the losses around and neither can be relied on. So it just seems to depend on who or which side you believe is telling the truth.

Most likely we wont know for years to come.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by zovs66

So its like both sides are flipping the losses around and neither can be relied on. So it just seems to depend on who or which side you believe is telling the truth.

Most likely we wont know for years to come.

I will assume a lot of BS by both sides but IMHO the "truth" is probably (maybe) a bit closer to Ukrainian reports than Russians but by how much is unknown and I agree the whole truth will take years to know for sure ( we still don't know for sure what the WW2 casualties actually were ) but that said, 1,300 seems way too low given the amount of fighting and the lack of real progress

5176 vs 30,000 is a HUGE difference. If you halve what the Russians claim as the Ukraine estimate and double the Russian you end up with 10,000 - 15,000 either way, it's a lot on both sides

Has anyone seen a list of Ukraines reported combat casualties?

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by DRG

Has anyone seen a list of Ukraines reported combat casualties?

Don't know if this guy has been mentioned - most people here is probably familiar with him, he does lists on (equipment) losses where there's some kind of photo or video confirming it - so not likely to be a list of all the losses. He seems to know his stuff though:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop?re...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

[DRG]

I did a tiny edit on that last post as the quote was wrong

I have seen a post similar made I think by Blazoes earlier on but we have multiple Ukraine related posts and it's difficult to check back but thanks for reposting it. I thought I had saved the link but I hadn't and yes for every vehicle there is confirmation

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

If you look at the first one that is reported to be a T-72B that shows what I thought was supposed to be the Arena launchers
but right now IDK for sure

[DRG]

The one that is shown as
T-72A: (1, destroyed)

Looks like the one that was shown in that ATGM attack / drone sequence near what looked like a gas station ( the green-roofed buildings )in a small town

[DRG]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0

Debunking the myth of Russian 'cannon fodder' in Ukraine

One POV this ties in with the posted link above

The premise here is that old equipment DOES NOT make up the bulk of the losses

[Wdll]

Originally Posted by DRG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0

One POV this ties in with the posted link above

The premise here is that old equipment DOES NOT make up the bulk of the losses

I think I am going to cry.
It has finally happened.
Someone who knows the difference between hypothetical and theoretical/in theory.
It feels so good.
Thank you for sharing this video. Not only for the interesting content, but for the detail I mentioned.