Site Searching Statistics Questions

[lch]

VedalkenBear said:
Or an 7.83% chance of finding an Astral site in a province that already has another Earth site, _provided you did not search for the Earth site_. If you did, then it is 0.0876, or an 8.76% chance.

Okay, this does sound wrong. As said before, the sites that are in a province are determined when the game starts, not when a site search is being made. Either there is a specific site in a province or there isn't. What you're dealing with regarding to statistics is in which of the five possible scenarios zero/one/two/three/four sites in the province you are and then if you picked the right path which covers one of these sites. Unless you found any sites, all these five scenarios go into your equation to find a site or not. So there's a 20% chance for that specific scenario and then tied to that a xx% chance to find a new site. These xx% chances from the different scenarios add up. Once you found some sites, you cancel out those chances from the scenarios that are no longer possible, so the overall probability to find a new site goes down. I hope that this makes any sense.