Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[shahadi]

Given a full-scale invasion of the Baltics, “The main Russian objectives would be securing control over the air and blockade the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad region would be used to blockade the land route through Suwalki, Poland to Vilnius and Riga (my emphasis). Russia would not necessarily need to assault Suwalki itself, but rather secure control over Lithuanian towns of Kybartai, Marijumpole, Kalvarija and Druskinskai. First cities to fall would be Narva, Tartu, Balvi, Kārsava, Rēzekne, Krāslava and Daugavpils. Since Vilnius is close to Belarusian border it would be first Baltic capital to be attacked.”

Source:”Russian Invasion of the Baltics: Nightmare or Reality,” https://latvianhistory.com/2016/07/09/.

Blocking the route up front Suwalki would appear to be a likely objective of Russian planners. And, I would venture to say, a prime objective which must be achieved within the first hours of the conflict. Departing a bit from Grant1pa's scenario, I would envision Russian paratroopers tasked to hold the intersection of A7 and E67 at
Marijumpole until heavy mechanized and armor forces are brought out of the Kaliningrad.

I would not anticipate Belarus sending forces to capture Vilnius, but I could see a joint Russian Belarusian military exercise occurring just prior to the start of hostilities as a ruse to enable Russian forces from inside Belarus to attack the Lithuanian capital.


This is the basis of the scenario Grant1pa authored. You can find it here: http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/showp...41&postcount=1.

=====

[Grant1pa]

Originally Posted by shahadi

Given a full-scale invasion of the Baltics, “The main Russian objectives would be securing control over the air and blockade the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad region would be used to blockade the land route through Suwalki, Poland to Vilnius and Riga (my emphasis). Russia would not necessarily need to assault Suwalki itself, but rather secure control over Lithuanian towns of Kybartai, Marijumpole, Kalvarija and Druskinskai. First cities to fall would be Narva, Tartu, Balvi, Kārsava, Rēzekne, Krāslava and Daugavpils. Since Vilnius is close to Belarusian border it would be first Baltic capital to be attacked.”

Source:”Russian Invasion of the Baltics: Nightmare or Reality,” https://latvianhistory.com/2016/07/09/.

Blocking the route up front Suwalki would appear to be a likely objective of Russian planners. And, I would venture to say, a prime objective which must be achieved within the first hours of the conflict. Departing a bit from Grant1pa's scenario, I would envision Russian paratroopers tasked to hold the intersection of A7 and E67 at
Marijumpole until heavy mechanized and armor forces are brought out of the Kaliningrad.

I would not anticipate Belarus sending forces to capture Vilnius, but I could see a joint Russian Belarusian military exercise occurring just prior to the start of hostilities as a ruse to enable Russian forces from inside Belarus to attack the Lithuanian capital.


This is the basis of the scenario Grant1pa authored. You can find it here: http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/showp...41&postcount=1.

=====

Exactly the way I researched it. I agree with the use of paratroopers as a major element in any Russian incursion. I just went a different direction with the emphasis on NATO's defense from mechanized forces (one of the major concerns of the Baltic governments).

The inclusion of a "southern" axis of attack through Belarus is definitely an option and would be predictable. Kudos Shahadi!

Some further readings for those that are interested:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...uwalki-gap.htm

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1253.pdf

Tom