How this war propable [WWIII] started Materials for scenerios

[blazejos]

If you are interested how this whole piecemeal WWIII started we must look to 2014 and first covered aggression on Ukraine. Here are articles by Ukrainians from 2020 which very detailed described first confusions and fights with detailed maps and locations of units. In my opinion excellent material to create a few Scenarios for SPMBT which my presents roots of this actually war eights years ago
So now that is the part of history that is why fight are described so detailed here example from articles


The scheme of the battle outside Semenivka. 5 May 2014.




Ukraine’s Armed Forces on the Eve of the Conflict
https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/ukrain...-the-conflict/

Springtime for the Invader, Part One
https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/spring...ader-part-one/

Springtime for the Invader. Part 2
https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/spring...nvader-part-2/

And So Began Sloviansk
https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/and-so-began-sloviansk/

Things Are Heating Up in Sloviansk
https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/things...-in-sloviansk/

What Happened in Mariupol on May 9th, 2014
https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/what-h...-may-9th-2014/

[blazejos]

Now an Map: Unofficial map of hostilities in the Bakhmut direction as of mid-December 2022



Source https://mil.in.ua/en/news/near-bakhm...r-fallen-ones/

[Suhiir]

I seriously doubt the Ukraine situation will lead to WW3. Short of going nuclear, and Russia is not that stupid. Sure they could wreak havoc with a nuclear strike but the end result would be the obliteration of Russia and anyone involved in deciding to go nuclear hunted down and "dealt" with. Russia is to weak and has almost zero allies, so conventional war is out.

Now what the PRC does concerning Taiwan ... that could be trouble. China has been supporting various terrorist groups for years, and although not conventional forces they could cause no end of trouble inside, and for, probable PRC opponents. PRC leadership believes it would survive a nuclear exchange, and doesn't really care about their population/infrastructure, they can be replaced. Conventional warfare with the PRC would be a problem since just getting there with sufficient forces is a MAJOR issue.

[DRG]

Don’t Crash the Ambulance
Song by Mark Knopfler

Don't often open up this floor
Since I handed in my gun
What all these keys are for
Now my tour of duty's done
You got to know the switches
Now you got your turn
Watch and learn, junior
Watch and learn
Now you will get your trouble spots
Here's one from down voodoo way
Bragged he had me by the you-know-what's
Very funny, you don't say
The big enchilada
Stealing elections
Had to go down there
Trash collection
Got his cojones on my desk in there
Made into a souvenir
Set of cufflinks, nice pair
The rest of him's someplace up here
Sometimes you got to
Put a shoulder to the door
Not so fast, junior
Listen to your pa
Here, son
I'm handing over to you
Don't crash the ambulance
Whatever you do
What we have here's a dung hole place
Thought it was fly $hit on the map
Fat bastard, ugly face
And the personal crap
You can't move the barriers
You can't mess with oil and gas
Had to go down there
Stick a couple of aircraft carriers in his a$$
Fancy dress medals chest
It's all in here for all the gigs
Gas mask bullet-proof vest
All the usual rigs
There'll be things they missed
They didn't mention
You've even got a whistle in there
For attracting attention
Well, I think you're gonna be okay, son
You've had the tour, I guess
These two buttons by the way
This one I hope you never press
Some holy fool, just watch
Who's not like you or me
That one's the whole shooting match
Right there
It's the whole $hitaree
We don't forget who put us here, jack
That's page one
We talk soft but carry a big stick
And pack the biggest gun
We don't like accidents
Major or minor
You don't want yourself an incident
Don't ever invade china here, son
I'm handing over to you
Don't crash the ambulance
Here, son
I'm handing over to you
Don't crash the ambulance
Whatever you do

[wulfir]

IIRC the good field marshal Bernard Law Montgomery said something like this:


There are two rules of warfare:


1) Never march on Moscow.

2) Never send you land forces to fight in mainland Asia.


I have formulated these rules myself.


However - Russian military capability seems to have been much overestimated, and this after about a decade of building the armed forces up.

I wonder how crappy they would have been in the 1980s...
Built many (conventional) scenarios set in 1985 but having some serious doubts about their logistical abilities now..., seems like it's no rail road, no Russian advance...

[Aeraaa]

Originally Posted by wulfir

IIRC the good field marshal Bernard Law Montgomery said something like this:


There are two rules of warfare:


1) Never march on Moscow.

2) Never send you land forces to fight in mainland Asia.


I have formulated these rules myself.


However - Russian military capability seems to have been much overestimated, and this after about a decade of building the armed forces up.

I wonder how crappy they would have been in the 1980s...
Built many (conventional) scenarios set in 1985 but having some serious doubts about their logistical abilities now..., seems like it's no rail road, no Russian advance...

I actually believe that in 1985 they were orders of magnitude stronger. Not just in numbers and relative quality of equipment, but also in allies and in strategic resources.

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by Aeraaa

I actually believe that in 1985 they were orders of magnitude stronger. Not just in numbers and relative quality of equipment, but also in allies and in strategic resources.

I used to think so too, but I'm more doubting now - they might have had more troops to throw forward but were they of much better quality than what we see now? Were they better at logistics back then? Would they have been all that much more competent, less problems with corruption etc...

From a historic viewpoint allies have always been important for Russian warfare, they usually don't do very well when not fighting as part of a coalition...

[wulfir]

Stumbled over this article from a Finnish blogger who argues that mech forces are still highly important in Ukraine but that (leg) infantry with ATGMs have (on purpose more or less) been given lots of publicity...

Originally Posted by article

Unlike the early war Ukrainian information campaigns portrayed, the armored and mechanized formations, equipped largely with BMP-2 IFV:s and T-64 derivative tanks played a huge role in stopping the Russian invasion. But by highlighting the light infantry operations and western supplied Javelin and NLAW anti-tank guided missiles, Ukraine convinced the western citizens that their support was having an overwhelming impact. The support was crucial, but wouldn’t have been enough without the professional and ready elements of the Ukrainian army. The western weapons were most impactfull in the battle of Kyiv, where hastily formed territorial troops equipped with light anti-tank weapons were forced to step up.

The success of the Ukrainian mechanized forces also highlights the complete failure of the Russian BTGs invading Ukraine. The Russian forces had neglected training, forgot logistics and broke just about every instruction that was written in their own doctrine.

http://blog.vantagepointnorth.net/20...art-1.html?m=1

[Aeraaa]

I'm not surprised actually. People forget/dont know that the best antidote to ATGM light infantry is a healthy dose of 150+mm HE which is found in abundance in Ukrainian battlefields. Mechanized forces are also vulnerable but in a much lower level.

It also reminds me that what gets publicity is different from battlefield realities. Like in 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Everybody was talking about the drones and about how much of a game changer they were and how Azeris basically won the war using mainly them. Well guess what, it turned out that the bulk of the fighting was still done by old schoold combat arms like infantry/armor/artillery with a specific SF maneuver through harsh terrain securing Shusha at the end of war.

[Suhiir]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Built many (conventional) scenarios set in 1985 but having some serious doubts about their logistical abilities now..., seems like it's no rail road, no Russian advance...

Keep in mind the SOVIET military was designed around formation replacement. Send a formation to the front, use it until it's combat ineffective, then send up a fresh formation to replace it.
So the logistics necessary for prolonged support of formations engaged in sustained operations wasn't a consideration.

The "modern", and much smaller, Russian military may have decided that sustained operations is the way to go BUT they neglected to augment their Soviet era logistic support systems.

"The amateurs discuss tactics: the professionals discuss logistics." - Napoleon Bonaparte.