The probability theory

Taera · #1 January 26th, 2003, 06:31 AM

You know, its rather funny - i used to play as a race with ice/methane combo. I play my RP races and this race passed on quick, now i play as a human race, ice/oxygen.

If you remember, calculations showed that ice/methane planets are rarest combination.

In my current game i have explored 5 systems.
5 ice/methane
2 ice/oxygen

probability is a funny thing....

[ January 26, 2003, 04:31: Message edited by: Taera ]

MacLeod · #2 January 26th, 2003, 06:40 AM

This is why many wise men have replaced the Probability Theory with Murphy's Law.

Murphy was a genius.
By the way, who the hell was Murphy?

Fyron · #3 January 26th, 2003, 06:51 AM

Umm... there are as many Ice Methane as there are Rock Oxygen.

Instar · #4 January 26th, 2003, 06:56 AM

Murphy is a misquoted researcher for some institute, who once said (roughly)"If there are two ways of doing something," and I forget the rest
I forget where he worked but it was for some high tech agency or osmething

Phoenix-D · #5 January 26th, 2003, 06:59 AM

Murpy's law has many variations.

One:
"Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. At the worst possible time and in the worst possible way."

Another:
"If there are two solutions to a problem, the wrong one will be picked first."

Phoenix-D

Slick · #6 January 26th, 2003, 07:09 AM

Well I can tell you about probabilities in the engineering industry. We have this saying "fifty-fifty-ninety"

It means whenever you have a fifty-fifty chance, 90% of the time you will guess wrong. And, from what I have seen, it is right!

Slick.

tbontob · #7 January 26th, 2003, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Slick:
Well I can tell you about probabilities in the engineering industry. We have this saying "fifty-fifty-ninety"

It means whenever you have a fifty-fifty chance, 90% of the time you will guess wrong. And, from what I have seen, it is right!

Slick.

Better to flip a coin then!

Grandpa Kim · #8 January 26th, 2003, 09:03 AM

Harumph! Murphy was an optimist!

couslee · #9 January 26th, 2003, 09:06 AM

but now your basing it on balanced percentages. if you flip a coin 100 times, will you get 50 heads and 50 tails? no. I read somewhere it would take many million flips for a balancing out to occur. And how would you know the first balancing out was accurate unless you did it a second time? manybe you would have to run that test millions of times before you got a true probability answer.

You only explored 5 systems, and expect a 50/50?

I have over 80% of my game explored, and still have not found a gas giant race. (or a hydrogen breather of any kind).

tbontob · #10 January 26th, 2003, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Grandpa Kim:
Harumph! Murphy was an optimist!

IIRC Murphy's law is "If anything can go wrong, it will."

Now that is pessimism in spades. And you say he is an optimist?