MP: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, Running

[Bluff]

Hi cleveland and peoples

Just letting you know i'm Zapmeister's friend playing Agatha and have had my account activated.

Looking forward to this game!

[Jarkko]

Originally Posted by cleveland

if everyone's 99% committed to this game, there's still only a ~79% chance that everyone shows up

Oooo, nice that there people around who like to play with probabilities, and *know* how they are calculated

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Jarkko

Oooo, nice that there people around who like to play with probabilities, and *know* how they are calculated

Sure, 80% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[Dragar]

and 68% of people believe them

[Jarkko]

And then there are *lots* of people who do not understand probabilities, chance or statistics at all Statistics are one thing, probabilities are another thing, and it looks like at least Dragar and chrispedersen have some issues understanding the difference You might want to pick up your maths books again

*If* (notice the word if, it is there for a reason ) something would be presumed to have a 99% chance to happen, then there is 21.4% (ie 1-(.99^24)x100%) chance that at least one in twenty-four would fail. Statistics could then be used afterwards to prove the assumption to be correct or false (within the limits of statistical means, of course ).

[Starshine_Monarch]

... Or they could just be trying to make a joke. I think you need to ease up on them about 80% more. I don't know if you're a math teacher or not but this is a *game*. You may as well leave your textbooks in the classroom for all the good they'll do you here.

No offense meant of course.

[cleveland]

Emperical evidence suggests that no statistically significant difference exists between my odds of winning here and my odds of winning in Atlantic City.

[Dragar]

While I have to admit that it is a while since I completed my finance and engineering studies, and haven't picked up a maths textbook in quite some years, I have undertaken a fair amount of risk analysis in the past few years, performing reliability and availability modelling for offshore gas facilities. While it is true that probability and statitics aren't the same thing, per se, they are very closely linked. The 79% chance is a probability*, and 80% of all statistics being made up says that there is an 80% chance that any average individual statistical measure has been made up. Very much the same thing

* there is a large and one would think inherently false assumption in the derivation of there being a 79% chance of someone not showing up - it assumes the actions of all participants are independent, whereas with such a group of people in a community this small and friendly that is very unlikely to be the case - surely if I hadn't submitted a rpetender near closing I would be reminded/encouraged/coerced by a player in this game I am on friendly terms or in another game with?

[GrudgeBringer]

Dang all that stuff....

All I need to know is its 220 to 1 that you will get Pocket Aces Preflop on a ten person table.

Or that to Flop a set three of a kind with a poket pair in your hand) is aprox 7 to 1 agianst you.

that kind of stuff....

[Incabulos]

I work for a slot machine manufacturer. It is the general lack of understanding of probability, randomness, clustering and volatility that makes casinos possible(and rich).

One of my favourite probabilities is how few people there need to be in a room to make the likliehood of two people sharing a birthday highly probable.