The Russians may not roll the dice on a military incursion into the Baltics, however, that does not mean it is not beneficial to wargame that scenario. Having said that, I do believe Russia does not want NATO right up to its borders. And, it has been strongly suggested that the US may have broken her word when she advocated the admittance of the Baltic States to NATO.
“…in Moscow on Feb. 9, then-Secretary of State James Baker suggested that in exchange for cooperation on Germany, U.S. could make ‘iron-clad guarantees’ that NATO would not expand ‘one inch eastward’. Less than a week later, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to begin reunification talks. No formal deal was struck, but from all the evidence, the quid pro quo was clear: Gorbachev acceded to Germany’s western alignment and the U.S. would limit NATO’s expansion.” (Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Los Angeles Times, May 30, 2016:
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...nap-story.html)
Now, we may begin to understand how Russia may feel aggrieved in a way that Putin may find it imperative to roll back NATO off of Russian borders.
Given the recent modus operandi of overthrowing governments from the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ in Tunisia, to Egypt, to Syrian demonstrations in Homs at a central square, to the failed attempt in Turkey during the Gezi park demonstrations in 2013, to the Georgian demonstrations, to the annexation of Crimea, all began with activists agitating for ‘human rights’ against the government.
I would argue, the most plausible course of Russian action would be a similar sort of indirect action by directing pro-Russian groups in Estonia and Latvia to stir up the pot and agitate those governments for ‘human rights’. I have not read of significant Russian speakers in Lithuania, so this type of action would not complete taking back the Baltics, therefore, in Lithuania, a military action maybe most plausible.
Again, it is the job of analyst to wargame all sorts of scenarios.
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Re: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States
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