Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[Aeraaa]

Originally Posted by wulfir

I'm not convinced of the overall quality of Russian brigades vs western opponents. IIRC conscription was reduced significantly in order to try and combat the bulling of new troops.

IIRC Russia also used to have a hard time finding recruits to fill up all their numerous "elite" units (incl Ministry of Interior competing for bodies) as the health situation in Russia is not that great.

The decisive units of a Russian brigade are staffed by good quality personnel (the battalion tactical groups). Check this source:

http://mwi.usma.edu/russian-ukrainia...s-battlefield/

At some point it says:

As the Russian–Ukrainian War illustrates, the battalion tactical group has proven to be a uniquely responsive and effective tool for conducting siege warfare. The formation’s versatility and success led Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, to announce in September 2016 the Russian army would increase the number of battalion tactical groups from sixty-six to 125 by 2018. Additionally, professional soldiers will staff the formation, whereas conscripts will be assigned to rear-echelon formations—which will likely yield more effective battalion tactical groups. As a result, the US Army can expect to find Russian battalion tactical group continuing to emerge in areas in which Russia employs ground forces to achieve political objectives.

And I agree with the general concept. I do not think that Russia will fight like the stereotypical Soviet army (which was also misunderstood by many in the west) and there is a very good reason for that: it does not have the resources the former USSR had. Modern Russia has to fight much more smart and carefully if she wants to have any reasonable chance of success. And the first NATO forces in the area are undermanned, undergunned and ill trained for conventional or even the new form of hybrid warfare.

[IronDuke99]

The most recent stuff on Russia I saw was a talk from a former Royal Marine at RUSI, he had been observing Russian forces in Ukraine, and made much of both their very strong and flexible artillery, signals and electronic intelligence, etc. He made a particular point of how difficult it was to mass forces for a counter attack without getting a massive artillery stonk on top of you.

To my mind if there is a fight over the Baltics and NATO loses, they either quit and cut their losses or it goes nuclear and we are all likely to lose.

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by Aeraaa

Modern Russia has to fight much more smart and carefully if she wants to have any reasonable chance of success.

Old habits die hard.

Historically the Soviet/Russian art of warfare has been more amazing in theory than in practice. Maybe they have reached their 2020 goals etc ahead of time but I doubt it.

[Aeraaa]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Old habits die hard.

Historically the Soviet/Russian art of warfare has been more amazing in theory than in practice. Maybe they have reached their 2020 goals etc ahead of time but I doubt it.

It was amazing in practise as well...when it was actually performed and not when Soviets were doing knee-jerk reactions to stop the Germans onslaught in the early years. Examples can be found in Operation Bagration, the Vistula-Oder offensive and Manchuria. In the Cold War they simply perfected an already proven system, while NATO was struggling to find a plan that didn't involve "push the red button after the Soviet tanks penetrate our lines". NATO finally found a doctrine that offered better chances of winning tactical victories, hoping that this would translate into operational success (something that they did not have as a concept until the late 80's IIRC) and relying on technological assets. Problem was that the Soviets were already thinking operationally and wars are won on the highest levels, not on the number of battles one side wins (and historical examples are abundant).
Having said that, modern Russia is not USSR. Because of the massive disadvantage in every field compared to the latter, they have to change the way they fight and actually it seems they are doing it. Yes, it won't be a smooth transition, but no country has that good fortune. And they did have a chance to see it in action in Ukraine. Will it be enough to enable them to fight the top tier NATO nations? I hope we won't have to see. But don't underestimate the bear.

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by Aeraaa

It was amazing in practise as well...when it was actually performed and not when Soviets were doing knee-jerk reactions to stop the Germans onslaught in the early years.

The massive initial Soviet losses in WWII were in part due to their inability to wage mobile war vs the Germans and lack of training (some training was done on the battlefield itself resulting in errors and losses). While they are later able to hold the overall initiative their offensives followed a set piece pattern and was for the most part uninspired at the tactical level.

Finland summer 1944 - the initial Soviet attack is delivered with such force and numbers that they need not care much about possible Finnish countermeassures and although being able to advance some they are unable to fully break the Finnish resistance - their offensive fails. The last Soviet effort against Finland (Illomantsi) ends in a clear Soviet defeat...

[IronDuke99]

Bear in mind a lot of good Russian offices died in the revolution or left the Soviet Service. Then in the 1930's the vile Stalin had a great many leading soldiers executed. None of which did the Soviet performance much good in the earlier part of World War Two, against a German Army with both high training, experience and morale...

[shahadi]

I wonder what form a Russian invasion would take. A full scale attack or a limited engagement akin to what we've witnessed in the Ukraine. There a good number of Russian speakers in the Baltic states, and organizations that could antagonize those governments then as a pretense Russia might invade on a limited scale to protect those Russian's rights.

Either way, what would be the response of Sweden and Finland, two countries not a part of NATO?

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[IronDuke99]

Originally Posted by shahadi

I wonder what form a Russian invasion would take. A full scale attack or a limited engagement akin to what we've witnessed in the Ukraine. There a good number of Russian speakers in the Baltic states, and organizations that could antagonize those governments then as a pretense Russia might invade on a limited scale to protect those Russian's rights.

Either way, what would be the response of Sweden and Finland, two countries not a part of NATO?

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I would be amazed, to put it mildly, if Sweden or Finland did a thing beyond some totally pointless verbal protest at the UN.

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by shahadi

Either way, what would be the response of Sweden and Finland, two countries not a part of NATO?

Sweden has declared it will not remain neutral with the so called “declaration of solidarity” and participates in a number of NATO drills and NATO operations (Cold Response, Afghanistan, Libya). The Swedish ground forces are however in a pitiful state when compared to the large but less advanced cold war army. Sweden could I imagine contribute no more than a battle group of battalion(+) size as a sort of symbolic force at present. But could also open its borders and air fields to NATO air.

But, in Sweden there is an anti-immigration party which seems to steadily be gaining ground. This party views Putin/Russia in a favourable light. Should this party be in power at the time of a Russian invasion of the Baltics I assume there would be no Swedish reaction (assuming the invasion takes place a few years from now)...


Finland has retained the conscription army and can mobilise considerable conventional forces should Finland come under threat. Even if Finland does not deploy forces to the Baltic states I imagine Russia would not leave the northern flank completely open…

[wulfir]

Anyways, a couple of years ago I started building a German/NATO vs Russia campaign set in southern Estonia.

The idea was a that the player would command a mixed battle group of somewhat unready NATO forces during the initial stages of a Russkie invasion...

I experimented with adding an element from a different OOB into the fixed German core force - here an attached Dutch mech inf coy - I did not intend for the player to be able to refit destroyed units and that the campaign would only last 5-6 battles...

Didn't really turn out that great. Stopped working on it halfway through. Buuut, if anyone wants to kill some time, here it is..., the Russians won't be all that problematic in this setup...