Does Life Exist

[Grandpa Kim]

To get back to the original question, it is my estimation that life is pretty rare in the universe. Not as rare as Atrocities believes but still, mighty rare.

I would not be surprised if we are the only civilization in this galaxy. I would barely raise an eyebrow if we were the only one in our local group of 17 galaxies. But thoughout the whole universe, the absolute number of civilization is reasonably high-- say between 100 and 100,000.

Unfortunately at our state of tech development we can never know for sure.

That brings to mind 2 points that have received little attention: tech level and intelligence level.

Tech Level

All the below assumes approximately equal brain power.

Right now, it is impossible for us to detect another culture as little as 100 years behind us-- a cosmic microsecond-- and it is impossible for them to detect us. This may not be true in as little as 200 years (2 cosmic microseconds). By then we may be able to see planets around another star as easily as we see the earth from the moon now. And this time span is just a tiny blip!

A society only 10,000 years more technologically advanced than us may not be obvious to us at all. Who knows what tech they might have? Whatever you guess is probably wrong. At the same time, they could hide from us easily if they so choose. If not, their antics may not even be noticed by us. Take longer spans and the gulf becomes ludicrous. We are not just "not on the same page", but in entirely different libraries!

Intelligence Level

To define, let me argue that there are various intelligence levels here on planet earth. Microbes are at one level, then perhaps worms, then insects. When we get to vertibrates, intelligence increases by quantum leaps. No doubt we are a quantum leap beyond dogs and horses and even chimps. The questions that are fairly simple to us cannot even be imagined by these creatures. I will paraphrase James Allen Gardner from one of his books.

Imagine a rock on the edge of a cliff. Its easy for us to see that eventually that rock will fall-- an errant gust of wind, an earthquake or simple erosion will push it over the edge. A few seconds observation and thought tells us this but is so unremarkable we hardly think about it. The chimp cannot even form the question let alone reach a conclusion!

It is not hard to imagine a quantum leap beyond our own level. What we can't imagine is the form it will take. In a million years, we will evolve somewhat but a million years is merely a cosmic day. It may not be enough to make that quantum leap. 10 million years may be enough. But imagine a race one billion years more evolved than us! Well, I really can't anything factual about such beings. I can say they may be all around us but we just don't have what it takes to recognize them.

The individuals of our species are very self centered. More than once (hah! many thousands of times) something has been "impossible" and we went ahead and did it anyway, yet we continue this self centered, "today" centered attitude. So, when someone says something is impossible, I just smile knowingly.