OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee

[Kamog]

Since Excel can't handle 1000 events in the calculations, I have settled for something less ambitious.
I calculated the probability for each of the results for the 100 dice rolls for David and Claude.

The numbers are cumulative, so for example the first entry means that there's a 80% chance of getting 14 or more 6's out of 100 dice rolls.

code:

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David	Probability	Odds		        Claude	Probability	Odds

14	0.7999947521	1 in 1.25		34	0.0000190716	1 in 52434

12	0.9222807788	1 in 1.1		32	0.0001238040	1 in 8077

17	0.5058410243	1 in 2.0		35	0.0000070251	1 in 142347

20	0.2197498431	1 in 4.6		37	0.0000008412	1 in 1188738

17	0.5058410243	1 in 2.0		28	0.0031013887	1 in 322

16	0.6123424483	1 in 1.6		31	0.0002957849	1 in 3381

21	0.1518878479	1 in 6.6		36	0.0000024818	1 in 402926

32	0.0001238040	1 in 8077		27	0.0062087189	1 in 161

18	0.4005925583	1 in 2.5		33	0.0000496373	1 in 20146

15	0.7125790826	1 in 1.4		33	0.0000496373	1 in 20146

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From this, it appears that what Claude did is very, very, improbable!