After some late night discussions with Captain Kwok on IRC, we found a way to explain the effects seen in leaky armor systems.
I have written up a simulator which will give you the exected damage stats for NON-armor components.
Fill in the hitpoints per component on the top row, followed by the relative number of each component on the second row.
Press calculate, and the stats will fill in.
On the bottom right there is a spinner to choose how accurate you want the recursive calculation to work to. A smaller number means it will take longer, but be more accurate. Start with a setting of 0.001 to avoid unbearable processing times, and only increase if nessesary.
Find it at:
http://imagemodserver.mine.nu/other/MM/SE4/Tools
Se4damagesim.zip