Completely OT : Cannes, Mickael Moore and the Iraq War

[AMF]

Making predictions is almost always gaurenteed to make the predictor look like a fool. Nonetheless, I can't resist making one today.

Here is a quote regarding the pledge to transfer Sovt'y to Iraq on June 30th (from Online Time magazine at http://www.time.com/time/world/artic....html?cnn=yes)

"Bush vowed both to transfer "full sovereignty" to an Iraqi provisional government on June 30, and to maintain 138,000 U.S. troops (or, possibly, more) in Iraq "under American command." U.S. officials have also insisted, up to now, that American officers will have command responsibility for the Iraqi security forces. But sovereignty is like pregnancy ? you either are or you aren't, because sovereignty means nothing less than final decision-making authority over all matters of state and the maintenance of security within the borders of a given nation state. If sovereignty is indeed to be transferred on June 30, then any U.S. or other foreign military formations in the country will have to submit to the political will of the sovereign Iraqi government."

My prediction is this: at some point, there will be a crisis wherein an Iraqi politician who is part of the governing body of Iraq will call for all US forces to leave Iraq. He will do this irregardless of prior stances becuase it will gaurentee him prestige and popularity in Iraq, and it will set up a clear crisis between the US and the Iraq "government." How this might turn out, I don't know.