Balance issue: order-luck, a no brainer?

[Keir Maxwell]

Originally posted by Saber Cherry:
Thus, if every (for example) 40 turns you got 100 events with a neutral scale, 50 of them should be good, and 50 bad. But with an order-3 unluck-3, you should only get 70 total events in the same time, of which 56 are bad and 14 are good.

So you get a tiny (12%) increase in bad events, a huge decrease (62%) in good events (which is OK, because they aren't as potent), and a 21% (or maybe 30%) increase in income. For free. ASSUMING all the published formulas are correct.
-Cherry

By assumming that the chance of events is 100% and order decreases it by 10% you have assumed that orders modifies event likelyhood by 1/10 - do we know this? Given the frequency of events when using low order races and the frequency when using high order races it seems unlikely. My experiance indicates that order +3 does a very good job of dampening down events while turmoil +3 does a good job of increasing them.

On the general question I liked how it worked in Dom I more with Misfortune increasing the chance of events to happen. Its a bit odd saying someone suffers from bad luck if it seldom happens? You suffer more bad luck with turmoil/luck races than order/misfortune races. As people have pointed out good luck can be great but bad luck can ruin you at the start - so less luck is better at present by my reckoning.

cheers

Keir