Hey Peter, don't blame me for using your numbers!
Obviously ignoring extra gem income is a simplification, but it's good enough to evaluate returns in regards to investment anyway.
Graeme:
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Who says you won't cast search spells? You must remember that water magic is essentially useless other than for quickness, so it's not a particularly big loss to convert all your water gems to astral ones.
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Oportunity costs. Mages & gems used to do one cannot be used to do the other. So you gotta choose.
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It does only take about 35 turns to get to 100 clams once you have a decent income in other gems, as that's exactly what I've done with R'Lyeh.
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Could you elaborate on this? % magic sites? map? # opponents? who are you putting 100 clams on?
And most important of all: where Atlantis & Ermor in the game?
What kind of game are you playing that you can spend 750-1000 gems in items with no immediate return, without your military power resenting from it? Really, if you had such a surplus why didn't you just go for the game & start killing opponents?
Re clams vs Voice of Tiamat:
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No reason you can't do both. But once you've searched all your water provinces, there's no reason not to make clams.
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Opportunity costs of course. Even more important because when you delay clam forging you delay your Return On Investment from those clams.
I am not saying that clam-forging cannot work, rather that it applies to very specific game settings. It's obvious that strategies based on economy building are stronger the longer the game, tho I find some of the 'fixes' being suggested a bit radical.
Why don't you just play faster games? The same fun with less MM.