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Twan said:
Earth just look better for most nations, and has some synergy with AI strength (huge armies of chaff needing some buffs or some solid summons to complete).
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In a recent battle, AI Argatha had 3 earth mages chain-cast curse of stones without considering the magic resistance of everyone involved. The pretender cannot be everywhere to buff every army either. Nevertheless, Earth is hard for the AI to mess up.
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Fire has no good summons out of uniques and may cause the AI pretender to chain cast fire from afar when gems are available (an annoying spell but not really cost efficient). May be good for nations with good sacred anyway
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The AI isn't efficient with any gems in general. I was more impressed with the astral and nature paths under the AI.
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(as well water is good for land AI nations with good sacred).
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A water9 AI land nation could cast Tethis' Blessing send it's troops into the water & then override Tethis' Blessing with another global killing their troops. I've seen it happen. The AI hurting itself with Wrath of the Sea could be possible too since the AI has no problem casting Utterdark & Burden of Time to kill itself. But if the map has no/little water then it's not so bad.
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Nature >8 would make sacred berserks, so it's bad for nations with holy mages. Nature 8 may be good (except when the AI poison its troops with bog beasts).
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Bogbeasts require a water path so as long as you don't mix water & nature on the same unit you're fine. Nature8 allows for all nature globals and the regeneration is nice on sacreds with higher life. Mass Protection, Relief and Mass Regeneration can be nice army buffs too. The benefits from the nature globals I mentioned earlier alone would far outweigh the rare tarrasque IF the AI ever even it makes one which I've yet to see. I have seen Niefelheim with Gift of Health.
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I don't trust the AI for using astral well, I fear to see AI pretenders feebleminded by some spells they may cast, or an immobile pretender teleporting somewhere and then never building a lab to return home (never seen this happen anyway, but with the AI I always imagine the worst case).
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I've never seen the AI use teleport or astral gateway ever. Anti-Magic and Will of Fates are nice mass army buffs too. Unfortunately, I don't think the AI does Master Enslave or Arcane Domination. SoAP is a big help for the AI finding magic sites. The biggest danger is it going feebleminded, which is why I suggested an immobile with a chalice. It doesn't need to be the pretender.
If you don't experiment you'll never know for sure.