MP: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, Running

[Jarkko]

Heh, this is getting funyn Always interesting how people fail to understand basic chance calculation Just for the record, I am not a mathematician, I am a pharmacist, but that hasn't stopped me from being able to figure out how to calculate probabilities; probabilities are after all quite simple if you think about for more than three seconds

Originally Posted by Starshine_Monarch

... Or they could just be trying to make a joke. I think you need to ease up on them about 80% more. I don't know if you're a math teacher or not but this is a *game*. You may as well leave your textbooks in the classroom for all the good they'll do you here.

No offense meant of course.

Heh mate It never did cross your mind that my above post per chance (sic) was a joke? All those smilies might have been a give away, you know Perhaps *you* should lighten up a bit, and not believe everybody are dead serious all the time; it is after all about a *game* Still, when people talk about bananas and somebody walks in and trumps the discussion with "But apples are always red!", it does leave one a bit baffled.

No offense meant, of course

Originally Posted by Dragar

there is a large and one would think inherently false assumption in the derivation of there being a 79% chance of someone not showing up - it assumes the actions of all participants are independent

The joke here is that nobody claimed a 79% chance of *somebody* not showing up. You *are* actually missing the point, are you not?

The point, I believe, was that it is practically 99% certain each individual will show up. You know, one might get run over by a car, the computer might fry, etc. Nobody can be 100% sure they will even wake up tomorrow. The ~79% chance thus derivated has no hard evidence behind it, but it is based on the fact that nothing is certain in life; lets give the unforseen a 1% chance. As a matter of fact, in human sciences it is customary to give that 1% chance for unforeseen phukk-ups per individual, because life has proven it *is* true: There is always about 1% chance something phukks up in an unforeseen way when you are dealing with humans

Thus the derived 21% (which I still think is a very clever gig from Cleveland, my hat is off in respect!) chance is not the chance that *one* player fails to appear (as you seem to be believe), it is the chance that one *or more* players wouldn't make it. It would be very bold indeed to assume people who sign up to not make it in 79% of the cases; in fact, if that was true, basically no MP games ever would launch


It would be interesting to calculate the chance for one or more people failing to comprehend this post and getting angry. But given human nature, it is practically guaranteed somebody will not understand and get angry I believe I have now pissed off enough people (always a smart move to piss off people right before you start a game where diplomatic skills are needed... ).


To Incabulous: If you want a better than 50% chance the answer is 23